全球一季度石油日需求量將減少250萬(wàn)桶

據(jù)原油新聞2020年3月9日倫敦報(bào)道，國(guó)際能源署（IEA）周一在巴黎表示，由于冠狀病毒疫情爆發(fā)以及“要求”歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)把他們假設(shè)產(chǎn)出水平日減350萬(wàn)桶至日產(chǎn)2500萬(wàn)桶，全球第一季度石油日需求量同比將減少250萬(wàn)桶。

IEA在其月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)，基于下半年“接近正?！钡男枨?，全球今年全年石油日需量將減少9萬(wàn)桶，為2009年以來(lái)的首次年度下降，但I(xiàn)EA同時(shí)也承認(rèn)存在很大的不確定性。

在設(shè)定不同的高油價(jià)和低油價(jià)情景后，IEA表示，在“悲觀(guān)”的低油價(jià)情景下，今年全球石油日需求量可能減少73萬(wàn)桶。

IEA估計(jì)，第一季度“要求”歐佩克或?qū)W佩克原油的需要比去年第一季度日減470萬(wàn)桶。就今年全年而言，要求歐佩克日產(chǎn)2730萬(wàn)桶原油。

基于冠狀病毒疫情爆發(fā)導(dǎo)致的預(yù)期需求下降以及運(yùn)輸需求停滯不前，IEA在發(fā)布名為《石油2020》的中期石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告時(shí)還把其到2025年的5年石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)至95萬(wàn)桶/天。

李峻 編譯自 原油新聞

原文如下：

Global oil demand to plunge 2.5 mil b/d in Q1 on coronavirus, says IEA

Global oil demand is set to fall 2.5 million b/d in the first quarter compared with a year earlier due to the coronavirus outbreak, with the "call" on OPEC producers falling to 25 million b/d, 3.5 million b/d below their assumed output level, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

In its monthly oil market report, the IEA forecast a full-year reduction in demand of 90,000 b/d in 2020, the first annual fall since 2009, based on "close to normal" demand in the second half of the year, but acknowledged high levels of uncertainty.

Setting out alternative high and low scenarios, it said global oil demand could drop by 730,000 b/d this year in a "pessimistic" low-case scenario.

Its estimate of the "call" on OPEC in Q1, or need for OPEC crude, was 4.7 million b/d lower than for Q1 2019. For 2020 as a whole, it put the call on OPEC at 27.3 million b/d.

Based on reduced expectations resulting from the coronavirus outbreak, as well as stagnating transport demand, the IEA also cut its five-year oil demand growth estimate out to 2025 to 950,000 b/d annually, as it published its separate medium-term oil market report, titled 'Oil 2020.'