北海油氣行業(yè)尚未失去“一切”

據(jù)能源之聲3月23日消息，一位分析師表示，至少在短期內(nèi)，北海油氣行業(yè)能夠在當(dāng)前原油價(jià)格風(fēng)暴的“未知水域”中生存下來(lái)。

來(lái)自能源研究咨詢公司伍德麥肯錫的北海上游業(yè)務(wù)首席分析師Neivan Boroujerdi稱，上一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期實(shí)現(xiàn)的成本削減意味著，當(dāng)前油價(jià)為每桶25美元時(shí)，94%的石油生產(chǎn)是盈利的。

但Boroujerdi警告稱，隨著企業(yè)已開始縮減資本支出預(yù)算，“擱淺資產(chǎn)的威脅是切實(shí)存在的”。

伍德麥肯錫估計(jì)，今年大多數(shù)新項(xiàng)目的最終投資決策將被取消，而未來(lái)五年內(nèi)，幾乎三分之二的開發(fā)支出將被取消。

英國(guó)石油行業(yè)的年度投資最早可能在2024年就跌至8.6億英鎊(10億美元)以下，這有望使接近60億桶的可采資源留在地下。

伍德麥肯錫認(rèn)為，已經(jīng)獲得批準(zhǔn)的快速周轉(zhuǎn)項(xiàng)目將繼續(xù)推進(jìn)，而“精選的少數(shù)”項(xiàng)目仍有可能獲得“綠燈”，這給人們帶來(lái)了希望。

Boroujerdi表示，如果價(jià)格回升或進(jìn)一步削減成本能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)，大約30億的資源將很快恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。

然而，油田服務(wù)行業(yè)不太可能進(jìn)一步降低成本，因此勘探和生產(chǎn)企業(yè)將需要重新審視其開發(fā)計(jì)劃，以節(jié)省大量資金。

他表示，對(duì)生產(chǎn)商而言，“最快的勝利”將是削減運(yùn)營(yíng)支出。

Boroujerdi還預(yù)計(jì)，該行業(yè)的獨(dú)立勘探和生產(chǎn)公司將在財(cái)務(wù)上陷入困境，尤其是如果銀行希望減少其投資組合的碳足跡。

他還補(bǔ)充稱，私募股權(quán)公司將發(fā)現(xiàn)很難退出其在北海的投資組合，這使得新一輪的投資浪潮難以想象。

裘寅 編譯自 能源之聲

原文如下：

All is not lost for the North Sea, yet

The North Sea oil and gas industry can survive the “unchartered waters” of the current crude price storm, at least in the short-term, an analyst has said.

Cost cuts achieved during the last downturn mean 94% of current production is profitable with prices at $25 per barrel, said Neivan Boroujerdi, of energy research consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

But with companies already moving to shrink capital expenditure budgets, the “threat of stranded assets is real”, warned Mr Boroujerdi, principal North Sea upstream analyst.

Most final investment decisions (FIDs) on new projects will be taken off the table this year, while almost two-thirds of development spend could be wiped out over the next five years, Woodmac estimated.

Annual investment in the UK sector could fall below ￡860 million ($1 billion) as early as 2024, raising the prospect of nearly 6 billion barrels of viable resources being left in the ground.

Offering hope, Woodmac thinks quick-turnaround tieback projects which have already been sanctioned will continue to progress, while a “select handful” pre-FID developments might still get the “green light”.

Mr Boroujerdi said about 3 billion of resources could quickly become viable again if prices recover or further cost reductions can be achieved.

However, the oilfield service sector is unlikely to be able to lower its costs any further, so exploration and production firms will need to revisit their development plans to make big savings.

He said the “quickest win” for producers would be to reduce operational expenditure.

Mr Boroujerdi also expects the sector’s independent E&P firms to struggle financially, especially if banks look to reduce the carbon footprints of their portfolios.

He added that private-equity firms would find it difficult to exit their North Sea portfolio companies, which makes a new wave of investment difficult to imagine.