歐佩克已認(rèn)識(shí)到全球需求的不足

據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月6日?qǐng)?bào)道，沙特與俄羅斯此前放棄減產(chǎn)，導(dǎo)致石油供應(yīng)激增，加上全球需求暴跌，當(dāng)石油市場(chǎng)陷入前所未有的危機(jī)，歐佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的達(dá)成意味著，該組織已認(rèn)識(shí)全球需求的不足。

能源是經(jīng)濟(jì)的一部分，而石油是世界上最大和最具生產(chǎn)力的能源。50年來(lái)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一直因累積債務(wù)而面臨巨大危機(jī)，當(dāng)前更是走到了懸崖邊緣。

當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)需求的下降幅度是自上世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái)，甚至可能是有史以來(lái)最大的。許多可靠的消息來(lái)源估計(jì)了2020年的需求水平，但迄今為止幾乎沒(méi)有確切數(shù)據(jù)。

到2020年第二季度，全球石油日需求量最大將減少1800萬(wàn)桶，且第三季度經(jīng)濟(jì)是否會(huì)復(fù)蘇還不能下定論。在需求如此疲軟，價(jià)格如此低廉的情況下，全球石油生產(chǎn)商將被迫停產(chǎn)。俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯可能同意減產(chǎn)的唯一原因是，除了減產(chǎn)他們別無(wú)選擇。

產(chǎn)量協(xié)議將導(dǎo)致更高的油價(jià)——至少在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)。西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油價(jià)格為30美元/桶，布倫特原油價(jià)格為35美元/桶。這兩種原油的價(jià)格至少被低估了20美元，因此價(jià)格還有上漲的空間。值得注意點(diǎn)是，在目前的情況下，供應(yīng)下降的速度不可能和需求下降的速度保持一致。一旦市場(chǎng)對(duì)此持懷疑態(tài)度，價(jià)格可能會(huì)暴跌到比3月底更低的水平。

多數(shù)分析師認(rèn)為，由于需求下降，全球石油儲(chǔ)備很快就會(huì)滿負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量將繼續(xù)占該國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量的一半以上，但總產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)更低。許多公司將會(huì)破產(chǎn)。石油產(chǎn)量或價(jià)格會(huì)或?qū)⒃谠S多年后才能恢復(fù)到2018年的水平。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Why The OPEC+ Output Cut Is Irrelevant

I’m in favor of the global output cut orchestrated by President Trump but let’s recognize it for what it is: largely irrelevant. Mohammed bin Salman and Vladimir Putin were glad to burn down the world a month ago when they walked away from production cuts. They had dueling temper tantrums in the junior high locker room while the world descended into economic Armageddon.

An agreement means conceding to the lack of demand for their oil.

Energy is the economy and oil is the largest and most productive part of world energy. The global economy has been dying of accumulated debt for 50 years. Coronavirus has sent it to the intensive care unit.

The closing of the world economy has caused the greatest demand decrease at least since the 1980s and probably ever. Many credible sources have estimated demand levels for 2020 but there is little data so far.

I have integrated many estimates into a possible scenario. It is based on expectations of how long the economy may be closed and how this will affect oil supply, demand and price. It anticipates an 18 million barrel per day maximum annual demand decrease in the second quarter of 2020. Unlike other models, it does not include a rapid economic recovery in the third quarter.

If the economic patient survives the ICU, it will need a long period of recovery and therapy before returning to its previous life.

Which brings me back to oil. Demand is so weak and price is so low that all producers in the world will be forced to shut in production. The only reason Russia and Saudi Arabia may agree to a cut is because they now see that they have no choice but to decrease output. They might as well look good doing what is inevitable anyway.

An output agreement will result in higher oil prices–for awhile anyway. At $30 WTI and $35 Brent, prices are at least $20 under-valued so there’s room for higher prices. The problem is that supply cannot possibly fall as fast as demand in the present situation. Once markets realize or even suspect that this is the case, prices will collapse maybe to even lower levels than in late March.

Most analysts believe that world oil storage will soon be filled to capacity because of falling demand.

Shale plays will continue to supply more than half of U.S. oil but total output may be lower. Many companies will disappear. I doubt that oil production or prices will return to 2018 levels for many years.