EIA：美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將下降120萬(wàn)桶/天

據(jù)能源信息統(tǒng)計(jì)4月9日消息，根據(jù)美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署(EIA)的最新預(yù)測(cè)， 2020年美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將減少50萬(wàn)桶/天(降幅4%)，至平均產(chǎn)量1180萬(wàn)桶/天。這將是自2016年以來(lái)原油產(chǎn)量首次出現(xiàn)年度下降。2021年，美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量將再下降70萬(wàn)桶/天(降幅6%)，至1110萬(wàn)桶/天。此外，2020年美國(guó)汽油消費(fèi)量將下降9%，至840萬(wàn)桶/天，而航空燃油和餾分燃油的消費(fèi)量將分別下降10%和5%。

由于預(yù)期的原油產(chǎn)量下降，美國(guó)計(jì)劃在2020年增加原油凈進(jìn)口量，同時(shí)減少出口。由于產(chǎn)量下降和全球需求減少，凈出口應(yīng)該會(huì)下降，這將導(dǎo)致美國(guó)在2020年第三季度恢復(fù)為原油和石油產(chǎn)品凈進(jìn)口國(guó)，并在2021年底前的大多數(shù)月份保持凈進(jìn)口國(guó)的地位。

EIA指出，由于疫情對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)的影響仍在不斷發(fā)展，因此其預(yù)測(cè)存在高度不確定性。此外，政府機(jī)構(gòu)假設(shè)不重新執(zhí)行歐佩克+協(xié)議。

裘寅 編譯自 enerdata

原文如下：

EIA forecasts a 1.2 mb/d drop in US crude oil production in 2020-2021

According to the latest forecasts of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil production is expected to decrease by 0.5 mb/d (-4%) in 2020 to an average of 11.8 mb/d . It would be the first annual decline in crude oil production since 2016. In 2021, US crude oil production should decrease by another 0.7 mb/d (-6%) and would reach 11.1 mb/d. In addition, US motor gasoline consumption is set to fall by 9% in 2020 to 8.4 mb/d, while jet fuel and distillate fuel oil consumption decreasing by 10% and 5%, respectively.

With the expected decline in crude oil production, US net crude oil imports are planned to increase in 2020, while fewer barrels will be available for exports. Net exports should decline due to this lower production and to a reduced global demand, leading the United States to become a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and to remain a net importer in most months through the end of 2021.

The EIA indicates that its forecast is subject to a high uncertainty due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on energy markets, which is still evolving. Moreover, the government agency assumes no re-implementation of an OPEC+ agreement.