美國石油產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)見頂

據(jù)今日油價4月10日報道，油價暴跌已經(jīng)導致美國150多座鉆井平臺在短短三周內(nèi)被拆除，導致新壓裂井產(chǎn)量驟降。根據(jù)Rystad Energy和Qz.com的數(shù)據(jù)，今年新完工的在線油井數(shù)量可能降至逾十年來的最低水平，不到9000口。

目前，已經(jīng)有7家石油和天然氣公司申請破產(chǎn)，隨著西德克薩斯中質原油價格跌破每桶30美元，這個數(shù)字可能還會大幅上升。

上周，美國石油日產(chǎn)量下降60萬桶，這表明對產(chǎn)量的沖擊已經(jīng)開始顯現(xiàn)。同時，由于需求突然下降，煉油廠不得不減少精煉產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)，這導致石油只能暫放在管道和油井口，二疊紀石油也出現(xiàn)了大幅折價。

美國能源信息署預測，石油產(chǎn)量可能在2020年下降50萬桶/天，并可能在2021年下降70萬桶/天。很明顯，這一切都取決于價格。渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)估計，如果油價維持在每桶30美元，到明年年底，美國每天可能損失400萬桶石油。

不管怎樣，美國石油產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)見頂，考慮到資本市場對石油行業(yè)的負面影響，很難再回到這一水平。美國能源信息署稱，美國將在今年晚些時候再次成為石油凈進口國，結束美國作為石油凈出口國的短暫時期(自1973年以來首次)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

U.S. Oil Production Has Already Peaked

1. New fracked wells plunge

- The collapse of oil prices has already led to the removal of more than 150 rigs in just three weeks.

- This year, the number of newly completed wells coming online could fall to its lowest level in more than a decade at less than 9,000, according to Rystad Energy and Qz.com.

- Already, seven oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy in 2020, a figure that could balloon with WTI under $30 per barrel.

- U.S oil production fell by 600,000 bpd last week, evidence that the hit to output has already begun.

2. U.S. oil production already peaked

- The U.S. EIA predicted that oil production could decline by 0.5 mb/d in 2020 and potentially by 0.7 mb/d in 2021.

- But, obviously, everything depends on price. Standard Chartered estimates that the U.S. could lose 4 mb/d by the end of next year if oil prices remain at $30 per barrel.

- Either way, U.S. oil production has peaked, and it will be difficult to climb back to these levels ever again, given how much capital markets have soured on the industry.

- The EIA said that the U.S. will once again become a net petroleum importer later this year, ending a brief spell in which the U.S. was a net exporter (for the first time since 1973).

3. Permian discounts spike

- With demand dropping suddenly, refineries have had to curtail the production of refined products. That has led to oil backed up in pipelines and at the wellhead.