今年全球電動(dòng)汽車銷量可能下降43%

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2020年4月16日?qǐng)?bào)道，到目前為止，每個(gè)人都應(yīng)該很清楚：疫情大流行的后果正在摧毀能源和運(yùn)輸行業(yè)，與爆發(fā)疫情之前雄心勃勃的計(jì)劃相比，現(xiàn)在電動(dòng)汽車（EV）的未來(lái)看起來(lái)有些嚴(yán)峻。

伍德麥肯茲在最近發(fā)表的一份分析報(bào)告中說(shuō)，去年全球EV的銷量超過(guò)了220萬(wàn)輛，今年可能會(huì)下降43%。原因是：為應(yīng)對(duì)疫情和迫在眉睫的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退而實(shí)施的旅行禁令抑制了人們的購(gòu)買欲望，尤其是購(gòu)買昂貴的東西，比如一輛新車。伍德麥肯茲分析師還指出，經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)也可能增加人們對(duì)采用新技術(shù)的反感。

歐洲的EV銷量一直在強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，1月份同比增長(zhǎng)了121%。然后，疫情襲擊了歐洲，并給這種增幅致命一擊。

如今，3個(gè)月過(guò)去了，作為全球第二大EV市場(chǎng)的歐洲，卻在經(jīng)歷著疫情的陣痛，而歐洲大陸的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景更是糟糕透頂。

旅行禁令、國(guó)家封鎖、成千上萬(wàn)的受害者、供應(yīng)鏈中斷以及內(nèi)部政治分歧正在撼動(dòng)歐盟。因此，彭博社日前對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，今年上半年歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會(huì)收縮10%以上。僅在第二季度，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)就將下滑8.3%。盡管這并不像對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)最糟糕的預(yù)測(cè)那么嚴(yán)重，但對(duì)EV市場(chǎng)而言，這仍是一次毀滅性的沖擊。

就連通常表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁、不屬于歐元區(qū)的挪威經(jīng)濟(jì)，今年也將疫情而出現(xiàn)收縮。挪威是歐洲最強(qiáng)勁的EV市場(chǎng)，這對(duì)汽車行業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)壞消息。

另外一個(gè)壞消息是，由于疫情，歐洲另一個(gè)重要EV市場(chǎng)的英國(guó)可能會(huì)看到其今年國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值縮水高達(dá)35%。德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)僅在今年第二季度預(yù)計(jì)就將收縮9.8%，而且這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮國(guó)家的名單還在擴(kuò)大。

與此同時(shí)，汽車制造商正在關(guān)閉工廠，歐洲各國(guó)政府也承諾不會(huì)讓任何企業(yè)因?yàn)槲C(jī)而倒閉。在美國(guó)，通用汽車公司時(shí)下正在生產(chǎn)口罩，以解決美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)危機(jī)期間的口罩短缺問(wèn)題。汽車工業(yè)現(xiàn)在幾乎和其他所有行業(yè)一樣一團(tuán)糟。

伍德麥肯茲的拉姆·錢德拉塞卡蘭和加文·蒙哥馬利在他們的分析報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道，然而，現(xiàn)在有一線希望：“汽車制造商沒(méi)有改變他們的碳中性目標(biāo)，而我們也不指望政府推遲或取消逐步淘汰內(nèi)燃機(jī)汽車的政策。盡管人們很容易認(rèn)為油價(jià)暴跌對(duì)EV的采用是個(gè)壞消息，但實(shí)際上，購(gòu)買價(jià)格、充電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和現(xiàn)有車型對(duì)銷量的影響要大得多?！?/span>

面對(duì)二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，歐洲能否堅(jiān)持EV的優(yōu)先發(fā)展方向，繼續(xù)對(duì)EV進(jìn)行補(bǔ)貼，甚至增加補(bǔ)貼，以使受經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退打擊的民眾更能負(fù)擔(dān)得起EV?美國(guó)可以嗎?這只是使EV不久的未來(lái)變得有些黑暗的問(wèn)題之一。

EV革命需要錢；就是這么簡(jiǎn)單。開(kāi)發(fā)更便宜但可靠的型號(hào)的EV需要付出高昂的代價(jià)。因此建立一個(gè)足夠密集的充電站網(wǎng)絡(luò)也是如此。汽車制造商已經(jīng)在他們的EV項(xiàng)目上花費(fèi)了數(shù)十億美元，并準(zhǔn)備進(jìn)行大規(guī)模的投入?，F(xiàn)在，這些投入很可能會(huì)失敗，特別是如果危機(jī)持續(xù)到今年上半年結(jié)束，這不是不可能的。

不過(guò)，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，EV無(wú)疑會(huì)繼續(xù)存在。他們只是需要更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間來(lái)替換內(nèi)燃機(jī)汽車。

伍德麥肯茲分析師寫(xiě)道：“疫情的全面影響還有待觀察。這句可怕的話很適合寫(xiě)恐怖小說(shuō)。事實(shí)上，我們迄今還沒(méi)有看到疫情對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的傷害到底有多大，我們只能希望，它還沒(méi)有糟糕到讓化石燃料向電力的轉(zhuǎn)變倒退幾年?！?/span>

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EV Sales Could Crash By 43% This Year

By now, it should be clear to everyone: the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic is killing both the energy and transportation industries, and now the future of EVs is looking somewhat grim compared to ambitious pre-COVID-19 plans.

Sales of electric vehicles, which in 2019 topped 2.2 million, could plunge 43% this year, Wood Mackenzie said in a recent report. The reason: the travel bans in response to the coronavirus and a looming recession, which has dampened people's appetite for new purchases, especially costly ones such as a new car. The economic situation, the Wood Mac analysts also noted, is also likely to increase people's aversion to new technology adoption.

EV sales in Europe had been on an impressive upswing, up by 121% on the year in January. Then, coronavirus struck and rained on this parade.

Now, three months later, Europe, the second biggest market for electric cars, is in the throes of the coronavirus and the outlook for the continent's economies is nothing short of horrible.

Travel bans, national lockdowns, tens of thousands of victims, disruptions across supply chains, and internal political divisions are shaking the EU. As a result, the eurozone economy could shrink by more than 10% in the first half of the year, a survey among economists made by Bloomberg has suggested. In the second quarter alone, the euro area is set for a slump of 8.3%. While that’s not as bad as the worst predictions for the US economy, it is still a devastating shock for the EV market.

Even Norway's economy, normally strong and outside the eurozone, is set for a contraction this year as a result of the pandemic. And Norway is the strongest EV market in Europe, so that's bad news for the industry.

In further bad news, the UK, another big EV market, could see its GDP shrink by as much as 35% because of the pandemic. Germany's economy is expected to book a 9.8% contraction in the second quarter of the year alone, and the list is expanding.

Meanwhile, carmakers are shutting down factories, and European governments are promising not to let any businesses fail as a result of the crisis. In the US, GM is producing face masks to address a shortage amid the crisis. The car industry is in the same shambles as almost every other industry right now.

Yet there is a silver-ish lining: "Automakers haven't changed their carbon-neutral goals and we don't expect governments to defer or cancel policies designed to phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles," Wood Mac's Ram Chandrasekaran and Gavin Montgomery wrote in their report. "And while it's tempting to think that the oil price crash is bad news for EV adoption, in reality, the purchase price, charging infrastructure and available models currently have a much greater impact on sales."

With the worst recession since the Second World War, could Europe stick to its EV priorities and continue subsidizing them, even increasing the subsidies in order to make them more affordable for a recession-stricken population? Could the United States? This is just one of the questions rendering the immediate future of EVs somewhat murky.

The EV revolution needs money; it's as simple as that. Developing cheaper but reliable models comes with a significant price tag. So does building a dense enough network of charging points. Automakers have already spent billions on their EV programs, and were preparing for major launches. Now, these could well flop, especially if the crisis drags on beyond the end of the first half of the year, which is not out of the realm of possibility.

Still, over the long term, EVs will undoubtedly survive. It will just take them a bit longer to replace internal combustion engines.

"The full impact of the pandemic remains to be seen," the Wood Mac analysts wrote. This is a scary line fit for a horror novel. Indeed, we have yet to see exactly how much the pandemic has hurt the world's economies and can only hope that it's not bad enough to set back the shift from fossil fuels to electricity by years.