需求銳減致使運營商非自愿停產(chǎn)大幅增加

據(jù)4月20日OGJ報道， 據(jù)雷斯塔能源公司估計， 4月份全球范圍內(nèi)至少有190萬桶/日的石油產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)下線，因為在連續(xù)3個月的疫情影響的需求破壞和油價下跌之后，運營商被迫關(guān)閉大量的油井。今年5月，這個數(shù)字可能會增長到至少200萬桶/天。

根據(jù)雷斯塔能源公司的數(shù)據(jù)，加拿大油砂仍然是主要的受害者，4月份關(guān)閉量為114萬桶/天，其次是伊拉克，約為30萬桶/天，委內(nèi)瑞拉為27.5萬桶/天。

“在我們的追蹤中發(fā)現(xiàn)，上游油田停產(chǎn)主要是由于低油價、疫情和儲油/開采量的限制造成的非自愿停產(chǎn)?！?/span>

總的來說，雷斯塔能源公司估計，到2020年第二季度，全球供應(yīng)將因疫情、低油價和存儲限制降至188萬桶/天。由于Fort Hills、Mildred Lake / Aurora和Kearl等油砂項目的停產(chǎn)，加拿大在第二季度的預(yù)計損失約為96萬桶/天，居于首位。

雷斯塔高級石油市場分析師Teodora Cowie說：“隨著庫存的增加，各國被迫大規(guī)模停產(chǎn)，以抵消2020年第二季度理論上2100萬桶/天的供應(yīng)過剩。對于運營商而言，停產(chǎn)是一個非常痛苦的決定——通常在經(jīng)濟(jì)上的支持下，會在一段時間內(nèi)虧本運行油井，而不是完全關(guān)閉項目。但是由于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的限制，這已不再是許多內(nèi)陸石油生產(chǎn)商的選擇了。”

還有消息稱頁巖氣區(qū)塊可能會被關(guān)閉。目前，有關(guān)美國停產(chǎn)的公開信息很少，但根據(jù)北達(dá)科他州石油監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的聲明，雷斯塔估計，3月份至少有17.5萬桶/日的產(chǎn)量被關(guān)閉，主要是在巴肯（Bakken）。根據(jù)美國大陸資源公司（Continental Resources）和康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）的最新新聞發(fā)布，預(yù)計5月份，在多個頁巖氣區(qū)塊的關(guān)閉量將達(dá)到17.7萬桶/天。

然而，據(jù)雷斯塔稱，即使在無法支付現(xiàn)金成本的情況下，大多數(shù)運營商也不愿關(guān)閉大量的油井，除非他們被迫關(guān)閉(即原油實際上沒有買家)。盡管美國油氣行業(yè)的決策過程肯定是由經(jīng)濟(jì)原理驅(qū)動的，但這種原理并不總是適用于即時的現(xiàn)金流。

“未來幾個季度的總體需求和油價不確定性迫使運營商堅持撤資，這樣做是因為如果他們在同行面前折價，就意味著失去了區(qū)域市場份額。雖然低產(chǎn)井顯然是要關(guān)閉的目標(biāo)，但我們并不希望低產(chǎn)井供應(yīng)迅速停止，是因為這些井中的大多數(shù)都沒有與管道相連，而且在任何給定的時間點，只有一小部分低產(chǎn)井必須以當(dāng)前的實際價格出售原油。”

“要想從低產(chǎn)井供應(yīng)中獲得實質(zhì)性回報，就需要長期價格疲軟。然而，一些專注于LTO的大型運營商已開始關(guān)閉其一些產(chǎn)量/經(jīng)濟(jì)效益最差的舊油井，迄今為止，這些供應(yīng)對宏觀形勢的總體貢獻(xiàn)可以忽略不計。”

舒曉玲 摘譯自 OGJ

原文如下：

Global shut-ins surge

Globally, at least 1.9 million b/d of oil production have been booted offline in April, as operators are being forced to shut-in considerable production volumes following 3 consecutive months of COVID-19 demand destruction and falling oil prices, according to Rystad Energy estimates. In May, this will likely grow to at least 2 million b/d.

Canada oil sands continue to be the prime victim with 1.14 million b/d of shut-ins in April, followed by Iraq with around 300,000 b/d, and Venezuela with 275,000 b/d, according to Rystad Energy data.

“The upstream shut-ins in our tracker primarily include involuntary shut-ins at fields which halted production due to low oil prices, the COVID-19 outbreak, or storage/offtake constraints.”

In total, Rystad Energy estimates 2020 second quarter global outages from COVID-19, low prices, and storage constraints at 1.88 million b/d. With oil sands projects like Fort Hills, Mildred Lake/Aurora, and Kearl shuttering production, Canada leads the tally with an expected loss of about 960,000 b/d over the quarter.

“As storage fills up, countries are being forced to shut-in production on a large scale to counteract a theoretical oversupply of 21 million b/d in 2020 second quarter. Shutting-in production is a very painful decision for an operator to make – often the economics support running a well at a loss for a certain period of time rather than shutting down the project completely. But with infrastructure constraints, this is no longer an option for many landlocked producers,” said Rystad Energy Senior Oil Market Analyst Teodora Cowie.

There is also news of possible shut-ins in the shale patch. Public information on US shut-ins is currently scarce, but Rystad Energy estimates at least 175,000 b/d in production was shuttered in March, mainly in the Bakken, based on statements from the North Dakota oil regulator. For May, 177,000 b/d of shut-ins is expected across multiple shale plays, based on the latest press releases from Continental Resources and ConocoPhillips.

However, most operators are reluctant to shut-in significant volumes unless they are forced to do so (i.e. there are literally no buyers for the crude) even when they are unable to cover their cash costs, according to Rystad Energy. While the decision-making process in the US oil and gas industry is surely driven by economic rationale, this rationale doesn’t always apply to immediate cash flows.

“Overall demand and oil price uncertainty for the next several quarters are forcing operators to hold out on pulling the switch, as doing so means losing their regional market share if they fold before their peers. While stripper wells are an obvious target to turn off, we don’t anticipate a quick deactivation of stripper well supply, simply because a majority of those wells are not connected to pipelines and at any given point of time only a small portion of stripper wells has to sell crude at the current physical prices.”

“Prolonged price weakness is required to see a material response from the stripper well supply. Yet some large LTO-focused operators started shutting in some of their least productive/economic legacy wells, but the total contribution of this supply to the macro picture is so far negligible.”