美國(guó)天然氣期貨價(jià)漲至九周高點(diǎn)

作者: 2020年04月29日 來(lái)源:中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng) 瀏覽量:
字號(hào):T | T
據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)4月22日路透社報(bào)道,美國(guó)天然氣期貨周三漲逾6%,至九周高點(diǎn),因市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾周天然氣產(chǎn)量將下降,因近期美國(guó)原油價(jià)格暴跌,頁(yè)巖盆地的鉆探商關(guān)閉油井。那些油井生產(chǎn)大量的天然氣。

據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)4月22日路透社報(bào)道,美國(guó)天然氣期貨周三漲逾6%,至九周高點(diǎn),因市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾周天然氣產(chǎn)量將下降,因近期美國(guó)原油價(jià)格暴跌,頁(yè)巖盆地的鉆探商關(guān)閉油井。那些油井生產(chǎn)大量的天然氣。

紐約商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) 5月份交付的近月天然氣期貨價(jià)格上漲11.8美分,漲幅6.5%,收于每百萬(wàn)英熱單位1.939美元。

與此同時(shí),由于為減緩疫情而進(jìn)行的封鎖限制了全球?qū)κ偷男枨?,美?guó)原油期貨有望連續(xù)第三周下跌。 這使得美國(guó)合同在此期間下跌了50%以上。

然而,展望未來(lái),2020年和2021年的天然氣期貨價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)高于最近一個(gè)月的價(jià)格,因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)預(yù)計(jì),一旦政府放松旅行和工作限制,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,需求將大幅上升。日歷2021年連續(xù)30天超過(guò)2022年,連續(xù)20天超過(guò)2025年。

根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)公司Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國(guó)本土48個(gè)州的天然氣產(chǎn)量周二跌至923億立方英尺/天(bcfd)的四周低點(diǎn),周一為93.1億立方英尺/天。

從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,據(jù)EIA預(yù)計(jì),疫情影響將使美國(guó)的天然氣日需求量(不包括出口)從2019年的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的849.7 億立方英尺降至2020年的日均837.9 億立方英尺和2021年的812.4 億立方英尺。若預(yù)測(cè)正確,這將是自2017年以來(lái)消費(fèi)首次出現(xiàn)年度下降,也是自2006年以來(lái)需求首次連續(xù)兩年下降。

據(jù)EIA預(yù)計(jì),隨著更多的美國(guó)液化天然氣(LNG)出口工廠和輸往墨西哥的管道投入使用,未來(lái)幾年美國(guó)的液化天然氣(LNG)和管道出口仍將創(chuàng)下新的紀(jì)錄。然而,出口增長(zhǎng)的速度已經(jīng)低于該機(jī)構(gòu)在大流行之前的預(yù)期。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)LNG日出口量將從2019年的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的50億立方英尺增長(zhǎng)到2020年的70億立方英尺和2021年的77億立方英尺,而管道日出口量將從2019年的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的78億立方英尺增長(zhǎng)到2020年的84億立方英尺和2021年的86億立方英尺。

短期內(nèi),隨著天氣轉(zhuǎn)暖,據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)提供商Refinitiv預(yù)計(jì),天氣轉(zhuǎn)暖,包括出口在內(nèi)的48個(gè)州的天然氣日需求將從本周的935億立方英尺降至下周的889億立方英尺。

根據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù),由于今年迄今為止的溫和天氣和與冠狀病毒相關(guān)的需求破壞,美國(guó)輸往加拿大的管道出口已跌至30天平均24億立方英尺/天,輸往墨西哥的為49億立方英尺/天,而1月份輸往加拿大的管道出口約為35億立方英尺/天,輸往墨西哥的管道出口約為59億立方英尺/天。

與此同時(shí),據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,流向美國(guó)LNG出口碼頭的天然氣量從周一的81億立方英尺/天降至周二的77億立方英尺/天的五周低點(diǎn)。

郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)

原文如下:

U.S. Gas Futures Jump to 9-Week High as Output Slides

U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 6% to a nine-week high on Wednesday on expectations gas production will decline in coming weeks as drillers shut oil wells in shale basins due to the recent collapse of U.S. crude prices.

Those oil wells produce a lot of gas.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.8 cents, or 6.5%, to settle at $1.939 per million British thermal units.

U.S. crude futures, meanwhile, were on track to fall for a third week in a row as government lockdowns to slow the spread of coronavirus cut global demand for oil. That puts the U.S. contract down over 50% during that time.

Looking ahead, however, gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021were trading much higher than the front-month on expectations demand will jump as the economy snaps back once governments loosen travel and work restrictions. Calendar 2021 has traded over 2022 for 30 days in a row and over 2025 for 20 days.

Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states dropped to a four-week low of 92.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday from 93.1 bcfd on Monday, according to data firm Refinitiv.

In the long term, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected coronavirus lockdowns will cut U.S. gas demand - not including exports - to an average of 83.79 bcfd in 2020 and 81.24 bcfd in 2021 from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019. If correct, that would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand falls for two consecutive years since 2006.

The EIA expects U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports will still hit fresh records in coming years as more LNG export plants and pipelines to Mexico enter service. The pace of that export growth, however, has slowed from what the agency expected before the pandemic.

The EIA projected LNG exports would rise from a record 5.0 bcfd in 2019 to 7.0 bcfd in 2020 and 7.7 bcfd in 2021, while pipeline exports will rise from a record 7.8 bcfd in 2019 to 8.4 bcfd in 2020 and 8.6 bcfd in 2021.

In the short term with the coming of milder weather, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 93.5 bcfd this week to 88.9 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder.

U.S. pipeline exports have dropped to a 30-day average of 2.4 bcfd to Canada and 4.9 bcfd to Mexico due to mild weather so far this year and coronavirus-related demand destruction, according to Refinitiv, down from around 3.5 bcfd to Canada and 5.9 bcfd to Mexico in January.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals, meanwhile, fell to a five-week low of 7.7 bcfd on Tuesday from 8.1 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv.

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標(biāo)簽:美國(guó) 天然氣期貨

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