美國(guó)石油價(jià)格反彈

據(jù)4月29日Energy Voice報(bào)道，油價(jià)在過(guò)去兩天下跌逾四分之一后攀升，波動(dòng)性可能持續(xù)，因市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心隨著投資者和一只主要基金退出6月合約，油價(jià)可能再度跌破零值。

紐約期貨價(jià)格在周二下跌后上漲14%。此前，全球最大的石油交易所交易基金(etf)退出了短期合約，原因是不斷增加的庫(kù)存迫使投資者不得不面對(duì)這樣一種可能性，即可能沒有任何實(shí)際的庫(kù)存空間。

據(jù)知情人士透露，美國(guó)石油學(xué)會(huì)(American Petroleum Institute)報(bào)告稱，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)交割地俄克拉荷馬州庫(kù)欣的原油庫(kù)存上周增加了249萬(wàn)桶。瑞銀集團(tuán)預(yù)計(jì)，這個(gè)關(guān)鍵的存儲(chǔ)中心的儲(chǔ)量可能在下個(gè)月達(dá)到極限。

當(dāng)前，全球燃料過(guò)剩，儲(chǔ)油能力正在經(jīng)受考驗(yàn)。雖然全球最大的產(chǎn)油國(guó)已同意從下個(gè)月開始削減近1000萬(wàn)桶的日產(chǎn)量，以試圖平衡市場(chǎng)，但這可能不足以應(yīng)對(duì)消費(fèi)暴跌帶來(lái)的沖擊。

VI Investment Corp.資深商品分析師Will Sungchil Yun在首爾接受電話采訪時(shí)表示："雖然有一些空頭回補(bǔ)，但除非庫(kù)存出現(xiàn)萎縮跡象，或找到有效治療冠狀病毒的方法，否則價(jià)格不太可能從目前水準(zhǔn)大幅反彈。"

GSCI商品指數(shù)（GSCI commodity index）是受養(yǎng)老基金和其他全球投資者追捧的熱門投資產(chǎn)品。當(dāng)標(biāo)普改變投資政策時(shí)，依次出售該產(chǎn)品的銀行會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移手中的股份，引發(fā)能源市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩。周二，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油6月期貨下跌逾21%，至每桶近10美元，隨后收復(fù)了大部分失地。

所有基金重新調(diào)整倉(cāng)位的累積效應(yīng)是，6月份合約約46%的未平倉(cāng)頭寸在過(guò)去6個(gè)交易日蒸發(fā)。截至周二，共有31.8萬(wàn)個(gè)未平倉(cāng)頭寸在15個(gè)交易日后到期。約有61萬(wàn)桶5月WTI合約在同一時(shí)間點(diǎn)到期。

6月WTI與7月原油期貨價(jià)差收窄至每桶4.35美元，與12月原油期貨價(jià)差約為14美元。

API周二報(bào)告稱，上周美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存增加了998萬(wàn)桶，如果周三的能源信息數(shù)據(jù)得到證實(shí)，這將是庫(kù)存連續(xù)第14周增加。彭博社調(diào)查的分析師預(yù)測(cè)，庫(kù)存將增加近1200萬(wàn)桶。

洪偉立 摘譯自 Energy Voice

原文如下：

US oil bounces back after fund switching drives wild gyrations

Oil climbed after losing more than a quarter of its value over the past two days with volatility likely to continue on concern prices may drop below zero again as investors and a major fund exit the June contract.

Futures added 14% in New York after dropping Tuesday as S&P Global Inc. told clients to immediately sell their stakes in West Texas Intermediate for June delivery into July crude. That followed a move by the biggest oil exchange-traded fund to exit near-term contracts as swelling stockpiles force investors to confront the possibility that there won’t be any space for physical barrels.

The American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, rose by 2.49 million barrels last week, according to people familiar with the data. UBS Group AG predicts the key storage hub may reach its capacity limit next month.

Storage capacity is being tested as a worldwide glut of fuels and crude expands due to the destruction in demand by the coronavirus. While the world’s biggest producers have agreed to cut daily output by almost 10 million barrels starting next month to try and balance the market, that’s unlikely to be enough to cope with the consumption hit from virus lockdowns.

“While there’s some short-covering, prices are unlikely to see a major rebound from here unless stockpiles show signs of shrinking or a cure is found for the coronavirus,” Will Sungchil Yun, a senior commodities analyst at VI Investment Corp., said by phone from Seoul.

S&P is behind the GSCI commodity index, a popular investment product tracked by pension funds and other global investors. When S&P changes the investment policy, the banks who sell the product in turn move their holdings, triggering volatile energy markets. WTI June futures slumped more than 21% to near $10 a barrel on Tuesday before paring most of their losses.

The cumulative effect of all the funds reshuffling their position is that about 46% of the June contract’s open interest has evaporated in the past six trading sessions. There were 318,000 open positions as of Tuesday, with 15 sessions left before expiration. May WTI had 610,000 at the same point before expiry.

The spread between June WTI and July oil narrowed to $4.35 a barrel, while the gap with crude for December delivery was about $14.

The API reported Tuesday that nationwide U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 9.98 million barrels last week, which would be a 14th weekly increase if confirmed by Energy Information data on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast inventories will gain almost 12 million barrels.