交易員們在油價反彈上押下重注

據今日油價4月28日，路透社John Kemp周一表示，全球石油儲備空間不足，產量下降速度不夠快，但上周對沖基金購買的WTI合約數量創(chuàng)下紀錄。上周的原油期貨購買量為1.22億桶，至少是去年12月以來的最高水平。Kemp表示，市場對油價反彈的預期促使購買量增加。盡管沒有跡象表明這種跡象一定會出現，但買家必須要做好這種反彈很快發(fā)生的準備。相反，最新的價格走勢表明情況恰恰相反。周一，西德克薩斯中質原油價格下跌了25%，至每桶13美元以下，周二在亞洲交易中繼續(xù)下跌，跌破每桶11美元。

美國石油基金昨日表示，將在4天內出售所有6月份交割的石油期貨。這與西德克薩斯中質油價格下跌有很大關系，也與人們對石油儲能不足日益增長的擔憂有很大關系——這種擔憂上周并沒有困擾到對沖基金和其他做市商。然而，本周他們可能會改變想法。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)昨日成為最新一家加入日益增多的石油儲備末日預言者行列的公司。這家投資銀行表示，全球的存儲能力可能在短短三周內達到極限。該行分析師在一份報告中表示，這將加劇市場的波動性，并使波動性保持在高位，直到供需重新平衡。要想達到市場供需平衡，高盛預計下個月石油日產量需再減少1800萬桶。

根據國際能源署(IEA) 4月份的估計，新增的每日1800萬桶石油需求是在總需求減少2900萬桶的基礎上增加的。

除了歐佩克下個月將開始的970萬桶/天的減產外，美國石油日產量還減少了約60萬桶/天，加拿大已將石油日產量削減了30萬桶。據路透社報道，巴西已將日產量削減了20萬桶。盡管未來幾周美國減產速度可能加快，但可能為時已晚。

據《華爾街日報》報道，大宗商品分析公司Kayrros的數據顯示，全球石油日產量為1000萬桶。該公司的首席分析師安托萬·哈爾夫(Antoine Halff)稱這個速度是可怕的，并警告說，如果這個速度繼續(xù)保持下去，三個多月后存儲就會達到極限。

Kayrro產品經理奧古斯汀?普拉特表示，對石油行業(yè)來說，幸運的是，石油行業(yè)的新增產量已經有所下降。

美國石油儲存空間幾乎已經將要耗盡，所以任何需求的改善都是值得慶祝的。庫欣是美國最大的石油儲備基地，上周庫存增加了10%，達到5970萬桶。這僅比峰值低了2500萬桶，聽起來可能很多。但如果增加的速度繼續(xù)保持下去，情況就不一樣了。

企業(yè)產品合作伙伴公司（Enterprise Products Partners）本月早些時候在其向北的海運管道中為生產商提供了產能，使那些難以將石油存放在墨西哥灣附近的美國石油生產商能夠將石油運往庫欣的存儲中心。

對于生產者和看漲的對沖基金來說，最主要的問題在于沒有一個快速的方法來解決儲存問題。關閉油井需要時間，甚至將油井廢棄也需要時間。據報道，一些俄羅斯生產商正在考慮將油井廢棄作為快速減產的一種方式。

這是許多小型石油生產商的破產正在發(fā)生，這也意味著產量將持續(xù)下降，這對多頭來說是個好消息。問題是這種下降是否會很快發(fā)生，就目前而言，這是極不可能的，因此當下一個近月石油合約即將到期時，我們可能會看到另一輪大規(guī)模拋售。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Traders Are Betting Big On An Oil Price Rebound

Global oil storage space is running low, production is not falling quickly enough, and yet last week hedge funds bought a record amount of WTI contracts, Reuters’ John Kemp said Monday. At the equivalent of 122 million barrels, the amount of crude futures purchased last week was the highest since at least last December. According to Kemp, the reason for the increased buying is an expectation of an oil price rebound. The buyers must expect this rebound to take place soon, even though there are no indications to support such an attitude. On the contrary, the latest price moves suggest the opposite. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate dropped by 25 percent to less than $13 a barrel and continued falling on Tuesday in Asian trading, sinking below $11 a barrel.

The United States Oil Fund said yesterday that it would sell all its oil futures for June delivery within four days. That had a lot to do with the drop in WTI prices, and it also had a lot to do with the growing worry about storage space – a worry that did not bother hedge funds and other market-making buyers last week. It may change their mind this week, however.

Goldman Sachs yesterday became the latest to join the rising number of oil storage doomsayers. The investment bank said that the world’s storage capacity could reach its limit within just three weeks. This, the bank’s analysts said in a note, would heighten volatility and keep it high until supply and demand rebalances. For this to happen, supply needs to decline by another 18 million bpd next month, as this is the size of demand loss that Goldman expects.

That is much easier said than done, because those additional 18 million barrels per day comes on the heels of a demand loss totaling 29 million bpd, according to International Energy Agency estimates for April.

In addition to the 9.7 million bpd in OPEC+ cuts that should begin next month, U.S. production has fallen by some 600,000 bpd and counting, and Canada has slashed its oil production by 300,000 bpd. Brazil has cut 200,000 bpd off its daily average, Reuters reports.

This is barely above 1 million bpd in production cuts outside OPEC+. While the chances are that U.S. production cuts will likely accelerate in the coming weeks as companies rush to shut in the wells that produce oil at rates higher than the selling price, it may be too little too late.

Global oil storage is filling at a rate of 10 million bpd, according to data from commodities analysis firm Kayrros, reported by the Wall Street Journal. The firm’s chief analyst Antoine Halff called this rate monstrous and warned that if it continues unabated, storage would be full in a little over three months.

Luckily for the industry, the rate of additions has slowed down a bit, Kayrros product manager Augustin Prate told Oilprice.

“Crude demand in China has almost fully recovered, with refinery runs back to pre-lockdown levels,” Prate said.

The United States is among the places where storage space is already tight, so any improvement in demand would be a cause for celebration. Cushing, the country’s largest oil storage complex, added 10 percent last week, to 59.7 million barrels. This is 25 million barrels below maximum capacity, which may sound like a lot. It isn’t if the rate of addition continues.

Enterprise Products Partners earlier this month offered producers space in its northbound Seaway pipeline, providing U.S. oil producers struggling to place their oil near the Gulf Coast the ability to ship their barrels to the storage hub at Cushing.

The problem—for producers and bullish hedge funds alike—is that there isn’t a quick solution to the storage problem. Shutting in wells takes time and even setting wells on fire—which some Russian producers are reportedly considering as one way to reduce output quickly—takes time.

This is time that many smaller oil producers don’t have, so bankruptcies are on the way. This would mean a more lasting decline in production, which is good news for bulls. The question remains whether this decline will happen soon enough. For now, this is highly unlikely, so we may see another massive selloff when the next front-month oil contract nears expiry.