低油價或?qū)⒓觿∶绹?jīng)濟下滑趨勢

據(jù)道瓊斯5月12日消息，高盛分析師Jan Hatzius表示，油價下跌將導(dǎo)致能源行業(yè)出現(xiàn)破產(chǎn)潮以及減少投資，從而加劇美國經(jīng)濟的下滑之勢。但Hatzius還稱，與更廣泛的衰退相比，這種拖累將很小。總的來說，他估計原油價格暴跌將令第四季度經(jīng)濟同比增幅減少0.25個百分點。Hatzius表示，與2015-16年上一次油價暴跌之初相比，目前能源行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負債表的基礎(chǔ)更為穩(wěn)定。盡管如此，他表示，非常低的油價水平意味著更多破產(chǎn)可能不可避免。根據(jù)高盛的預(yù)測，今年第二、三季度，能源企業(yè)的資本支出可能會同比下降50%-60%。

張春曉 摘譯自 道瓊斯

原文如下：

Low Oil Prices Seen Exacerbating U.S. Economic Downturn

Lower oil prices will exacerbate the downturn in the U.S. economy by causing bankruptcies and lower investment in the energy sector, says Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs. However, the drag will be small compared with the scale of the broader recession, Hatzius adds. Overall, he estimates that the crash in crude prices will cut growth in the fourth quarter from a year before by 0.25 percentage points. Balance sheets in the energy sector are on a more stable footing than at the start of the last oil slump in 2015-16, Hatzius says. Still, "the very low levels of oil prices mean that more bankruptcies are likely inevitable." Capital expenditure by energy companies is on track to drop by 50%-60% from a year before in the second and third quarters, according to Goldman's forecasts.