IEA：全球石油需求恢復需要數(shù)年時間

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)巴黎報道，國際能源署(IEA)署長法提赫·比羅爾日前在接受《海灣情報》記者采訪時表示，全球石油需求將至少需要一年，甚至更長時間才能恢復到COVID-19危機前每天1億桶的水平。

比羅爾說，全球石油需求恢復的速度將主要取決于全球經(jīng)濟增長和第二波COVID-19新冠肺炎感染的可能性，后者可能會導致更嚴格的封鎖。

IEA在其4月份發(fā)布的石油市場報告中說，由于許多國家采取了前所未有的封鎖措施來遏制新冠病毒的傳播，冠狀病毒疫情大流行已經(jīng)抹去了過去10年的全球石油需求增長。IEA在4月中旬曾預計，全球4月石油日需求量將減少2900萬桶，同比將減少創(chuàng)紀錄的930萬桶。

比羅爾對《海灣情報》記者表示，今年4月份確實是石油市場和石油行業(yè)的“黑色4月”，WTI原油期貨價格在4月份有史以來首次跌至負值。

比羅爾稱，盡管許多國家先后解除了封鎖，但IEA仍預計今年全球石油需求將下降。

當被問及美國頁巖行業(yè)的命運時，比羅爾樂觀地表示，危機過后，當需求恢復正常時，美國頁巖油產(chǎn)量將再次上升。

“頁巖油將會卷土重來，或許會比較緩慢，但我認為，從這段時期汲取的教訓之一是，現(xiàn)在就給頁巖油寫訃告未免為時過早，”比羅爾對《海灣情報》記者如是說。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand Could Take Years To Recover

Global oil demand will take at least a year--and probably much longer--to return to the pre-crisis levels of 100 million barrels per day (bpd), Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Gulf Intelligence in an interview on Wednesday.

The pace at which demand will come back will mostly depend on global economic growth and the possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 infections, which could warrant a return to stricter lockdowns, Birol said.

The IEA said in its April Oil Market Report that the coronavirus pandemic had wiped out a decade of oil demand growth amid the unprecedented lockdown measures in many countries to curb the spreading of the virus. In mid-April, the IEA expected global oil demand to drop by 29 million bpd in April, and by a record 9.3 million bpd year on year in 2020.

April was indeed a ‘black April’ for the oil markets and the industry, Birol told Gulf Intelligence, recalling the first-ever drop of WTI Crude futures into negative territory.

According to Birol, the agency still expects global oil demand to fall this year, despite the lifting of blockades in many countries.

Asked about the fate of the U.S. shale patch, which is reducing oil production for economic reasons due to unsustainably low oil prices, Birol expressed optimism that after the crisis, when demand returns to some form of normality, U.S. shale will rise again.

“Shale will come back, maybe slowly but I think one of the lessons to learn from this period is that it will be too quick to write the obituary of shale oil,” the head of the IEA told Gulf Intelligence.