IEA：石油需求恢復(fù)到疫情前需要2年以上

據(jù)世界石油6月16日倫敦報(bào)道，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)表示，隨著全球逐漸擺脫疫情影響，明年全球石油需求將會(huì)反彈，但要恢復(fù)到危機(jī)前的水平可能需要幾年時(shí)間。

總部位于巴黎的IEA在其對(duì)2021年的首次詳細(xì)評(píng)估中表示，明年全球燃料使用量將比2019年降低2.5%，主要原因是“航空業(yè)的嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì)”。

上述預(yù)測(cè)加劇了石油行業(yè)脆弱的前景。此前一天，出于對(duì)長(zhǎng)期需求的擔(dān)憂，BP公司沖銷了數(shù)十億美元資產(chǎn)。盡管如此，該報(bào)告還是給生產(chǎn)商帶來了一些好消息。

報(bào)告稱，今年上半年“以更為樂觀的態(tài)勢(shì)結(jié)束”，因?yàn)樵跒槎糁埔咔閭鞑ザ鴮?shí)施的封鎖期間，需求損失沒有預(yù)期的那么嚴(yán)重。歐佩克+的減產(chǎn)和美國(guó)的停產(chǎn)應(yīng)該會(huì)使市場(chǎng)在2021年出現(xiàn)赤字，從而耗盡今年迄今激增的15億桶石油庫(kù)存。

因經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)恢復(fù)且歐佩克及歐佩克＋削減產(chǎn)量，周二倫敦市場(chǎng)油價(jià)在每桶40美元上方交易，較4月底水準(zhǔn)翻了一番。

向多數(shù)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體提供能源政策建議的IEA將其對(duì)第二季度石油日需求量的預(yù)估上調(diào)了210萬(wàn)桶，在一定程度上緩和了原油日需求量的大幅下降。該機(jī)構(gòu)執(zhí)行主任法提赫·比羅爾(Fatih Birol)說，遠(yuǎn)程工作等生活方式的改變不會(huì)觸發(fā)長(zhǎng)期的燃料消耗穩(wěn)定。

盡管如此，今年全球原油消費(fèi)量仍將創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地減少810萬(wàn)桶。

雖然明年原油日產(chǎn)量將增加570萬(wàn)桶，但平均每天9740萬(wàn)桶仍比2019年的水平低240萬(wàn)桶。IEA石油市場(chǎng)和行業(yè)主管Neil Atkinson在報(bào)告發(fā)布后的網(wǎng)絡(luò)會(huì)議上表示，需求可能要到2023年才能恢復(fù)到每天1億桶的水平。

至少就目前而言，現(xiàn)貨石油市場(chǎng)正在趨緊。

根據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)的預(yù)測(cè)，庫(kù)存將在未來六個(gè)月迅速減少，理論上還會(huì)在2021年的每個(gè)季度減少。

IEA稱，歐佩克+在上個(gè)月的最新一輪產(chǎn)量限制措施上取得了“良好的開端”，實(shí)現(xiàn)了其每天減少970萬(wàn)桶的承諾的89％。

然而，IEA警告稱，如果歐佩克+試圖隨著消費(fèi)反彈而恢復(fù)產(chǎn)量，或者油價(jià)上漲重振了美國(guó)頁(yè)巖鉆探商，這種情況可能會(huì)改變。

裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

IEA expects oil demand to take 2+ years to recover

Global oil demand will rebound next year as the world emerges from the coronavirus pandemic, but recovering to pre-crisis levels may take a couple of years, the International Energy Agency said.

Fuel use around the world will remain 2.5% lower next year than in 2019, largely because of the “the dire situation of the aviation sector,” the Paris-based agency said in its first detailed assessment of 2021.

The projections add to a fragile outlook for the oil industry, coming a day after BP Plc wrote off billions in assets on concern over long-term demand. Still, the report contains some good news for producers.

The first half of this year is “ending on a more optimistic note” because demand losses during lockdowns to curb the spread of coronavirus weren’t as severe as expected, it said. Output cuts by OPEC+ and shutdowns in the U.S. should put the market into deficit in 2021, depleting the massive 1.5 billion-barrel surge in inventories seen so far this year.

Oil prices were trading above $40 a barrel in London on Tuesday, double the levels seen in late April, as economic activity resumes and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies slash supply.

The IEA -- which advises most major economies on energy policy -- bolstered its demand estimate for the second quarter by 2.1 million barrels a day, tempering some of the massive drop. Lifestyle changes such as working remotely won’t trigger a long-term leveling off in fuel use, said Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director.

Nonetheless, world crude consumption is still on course for a record contraction of 8.1 million barrels a day this year.

While it will climb by 5.7 million barrels a day next year, the average of 97.4 million a day will remain 2.4 million barrels a day below 2019 levels. Demand may not return to 100 million barrels a day until 2023, Neil Atkinson, the IEA’s head of oil markets and industry, said in a webinar after the release of the report.

For now at least, the physical oil market is tightening.

Stockpiles are on track to diminish rapidly over the next six months, and -- in theory -- decrease during each quarter of 2021, according to the agency’s forecasts.

OPEC+ made a “strong start” to its latest round of output curbs last month, delivering 89% of its pledge to cut 9.7 million barrels a day, the IEA said. Earlier this month, the alliance agreed to press on with the strategy, and members that haven’t yet implemented their share vowed to make up for it.

Next year, global demand is on track to exceed supply, with the projected recovery in oil production to be less than a third of the increase in fuel use, at 1.7 million barrels a day.

That could change however, if the OPEC+ coalition is tempted to revive output as consumption rebounds or if rising prices reinvigorate American shale drillers, the IEA cautioned.