美國頁巖行業(yè)需要重新考慮其繼續(xù)生存戰(zhàn)略

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)休斯敦報(bào)道，美國頁巖行業(yè)正在受到傷害。當(dāng)全球能源行業(yè)受到疫情及其對(duì)油價(jià)和石油需求的災(zāi)難性影響的沉重打擊時(shí)，西德克薩斯州的頁巖成為經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰的最大蛋糕。盡管國際布倫特原油基準(zhǔn)受到了打擊，但西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格在4月20日卻暴跌至零以下，當(dāng)日收盤價(jià)接近負(fù)40美元，震驚了全球，其結(jié)果是毀滅性的，破產(chǎn)潮、大量生產(chǎn)井關(guān)閉以及員工的大批解雇和休假席卷了整個(gè)二疊紀(jì)盆地，無數(shù)的德克薩斯州石油城鎮(zhèn)從新興城鎮(zhèn)變成了鬼城。就在不久前，二疊紀(jì)盆地的先驅(qū)和頁巖行業(yè)巨頭切薩皮克能源公司宣布了破產(chǎn)。很難不把此解讀為整個(gè)頁巖行業(yè)的一個(gè)壞兆頭。我們并不是沒有預(yù)見到它的到來。

英國《衛(wèi)報(bào)》近日?qǐng)?bào)道稱：“美國頁巖行業(yè)先驅(qū)之一的切薩皮克能源公司的倒閉，幾乎沒有人感到意外。”“在經(jīng)歷了石油市場(chǎng)歷史上最黑暗的一個(gè)月后，這家四面楚歌的水力壓裂公司陷入了一場(chǎng)金融混亂，包括未能按期支付利息、日益迫近的債券到期期限和沉重的債務(wù)?！?/span>

切薩皮克能源公司不是第一家受疫情影響而倒閉的美國頁巖公司，也幾乎肯定不會(huì)是最后一家。美國有線電視新聞網(wǎng)報(bào)道，如果原油價(jià)格不改善，美國30%的頁巖公司可能會(huì)破產(chǎn)。美國鉆井網(wǎng)站在日前發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告中寫道，總體而言，這一切聽起來像是頁業(yè)行業(yè)的近期深淵。“更重要的是，德勤公司的數(shù)據(jù)分析顯示，自2010年以來，水力壓裂開采企業(yè)已經(jīng)消耗了3000億美元，然而，30%的運(yùn)營商，無論大小，在每桶35美元油價(jià)的情況下，幾乎無法實(shí)現(xiàn)盈虧平衡?！?/span>

但幾乎可以肯定的是，現(xiàn)在就開始為美國頁巖撰寫大量訃告還為時(shí)過早。雖然美國頁巖行業(yè)的諸多困境沒有快速解決的辦法，但緩慢復(fù)蘇是可能的，甚至是很有可能的。據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站報(bào)道，盡管短期前景黯淡，但“與此同時(shí)，一些擁有可行探區(qū)的頁巖參與者看到正在接近的近期深淵。這些公司縮減了各自的業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模，為在同一動(dòng)蕩周期內(nèi)緩慢但穩(wěn)健的反彈留下了空間。”

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)5月份的一次報(bào)道，“美國頁巖行業(yè)需要減速才能繼續(xù)生存。”美國鉆井網(wǎng)站所描述的長期戰(zhàn)略和慎重決策對(duì)保持頁巖活力至關(guān)重要。驚慌失措地決定立即重新啟動(dòng)被關(guān)閉生產(chǎn)井，這將破壞頁巖行業(yè)反彈的機(jī)會(huì)。報(bào)告還指出“由于WTI期貨價(jià)格目前穩(wěn)守在30美元上方，甚至一度逼近40美元，正是這些公司在引領(lǐng)著緩慢的復(fù)蘇，其中包括Parsley能源公司?！?/span>

美國二疊紀(jì)頁巖盆地的復(fù)蘇之路將是緩慢但踏實(shí)的，而且復(fù)蘇之路肯定不會(huì)缺乏耐心。但對(duì)于那些能夠堅(jiān)持下去的頁巖公司——關(guān)鍵是能夠共同努力建立協(xié)調(diào)的復(fù)蘇——來說未來仍有希望。然而，未來的二疊紀(jì)盆地將永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)達(dá)到頁巖革命的高度。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Needs To Rethink Its Strategy To Survive

U.S. shale is hurting. While the entire global energy industry has been hit hard by the novel coronavirus pandemic and its disastrous effect on oil prices and oil demand, West Texas shale takes the cake for the biggest economic collapse. While the international Brent crude benchmark did take a beating, the West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark stunned the world when it plunged below zero on April 20, closing out the day at nearly $40 in the hole. The results have been devastating. The Permian Basin has been swept by a tidal wave of bankruptcies, shut-in wells, and legions of fired and furloughed employees, converting untold numbers of Texan oil towns from boomtown to ghost town. Just this Sunday, Permian basin pioneer and industry titan Chesapeake Energy declared bankruptcy. It’s difficult not to read the shuttering of this shale golden child as a bad omen for the industry as a whole. Not that we didn’t see it coming.

“The collapse of Chesapeake Energy, one of the pioneers of the US shale industry, took few people by surprise,” the Guardian reported this week. “The embattled fracker slumped into bankruptcy weeks after the darkest month in oil market history, in a financial mess of missed interest payments, looming bond deadlines and crippling debts.”

Chesapeake Energy is not the first U.S. shale casualty of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it almost certainly won’t be the last. CNN reports that as much as 30 percent of all U.S. shale companies could go bankrupt if the price of crude doesn’t improve. “Broadly speaking, it all sounds like a near-term abyss for the sector, writes Rig Zone in a report this week. “What’s more data analysis by Deloitte suggests frackers have burned through $300 billion since 2010, and yet 30 percent of operators both large and small can barely break-even at $35 per barrel.”

But it’s also almost certainly too soon to start writing a wholesale obituary for United States shale (not that plenty of headlines haven’t already taken that leap). And while it’s true that there is no quick fix for the United States shale industry’s myriad woes, a slow recovery is possible, and even likely. As Rig Zone reports, while the short-term outlook is grim, “at the same time, an agile group of shale players with viable acreages saw the approaching near-term abyss. These firms scaled back their respective operations down in such a way that it left room for a slow but sure footed bounce-back within the same tumultuous cycle.”

As Oilprice reported back in May, “U.S. shale needs to slow down to survive.” The kind of long-term strategy and measured decision-making described by Rig Zone is crucial to keeping shale alive. Panicked decisions to reopen shut-in wells all at once will destroy the industry’s chances of bouncing back. “With WTI futures now firmly above $30 and having even flirted with $40, it is these very companies who are leading a slow recovery,” the report continues. “Their ranks include Parsley Energy, a company which demanded a coordinated oil production cut in Texas, and having failed to get one voluntarily cut 20 percent of its 126,000 bpd output.”

The road to recovery in the Permian will be slow, but steady, and it certainly will not reward impatience. But for those companies who are able to hang on--and, crucially, are able to work together to build a coordinated recovery--there is still hope for the future. The permian of the future, however, will never reach the heights of the shale revolution.