石油市場(chǎng)低迷給美國頁巖生產(chǎn)商帶來了壓力

據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)7月7日新德里報(bào)道，石油市場(chǎng)的低迷開始影響到那些在維持供過于求和抑制價(jià)格方面占有相當(dāng)份額的人。隨著破產(chǎn)企業(yè)大規(guī)模增加，美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)商開始感受到油價(jià)下跌的痛苦。

美國的幾家頁巖公司已經(jīng)破產(chǎn)，可能還會(huì)有更多的公司破產(chǎn)。

根據(jù)Motilal Oswal Institutional Equities的一份報(bào)告，到目前為止，E&P(勘探和生產(chǎn))公司的破產(chǎn)總數(shù)已經(jīng)上升到20家，最近的受害者是美國頁巖氣行業(yè)的先驅(qū)之一切薩皮克能源公司（Chesapeake Energy），其總債務(wù)為90億美元。

該公司預(yù)計(jì)，當(dāng)前油價(jià)下跌將導(dǎo)致全球勘探開發(fā)資產(chǎn)減記3,000億美元。

考慮到幾年前勘探才剛剛開始回升，并預(yù)計(jì)現(xiàn)在隨時(shí)會(huì)達(dá)到頂峰，這一點(diǎn)很重要。但新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的封鎖和普遍的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩已經(jīng)扭轉(zhuǎn)了該行業(yè)的局面。

在截至2020年6月26日的一周內(nèi)，美國鉆機(jī)數(shù)量降至278臺(tái)的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)(自2020年3月以來減少了65%，同比減少了72%)，盡管隨著一些生產(chǎn)商重啟生產(chǎn)，油價(jià)已從4月份的歷史低點(diǎn)反彈。

根據(jù)貝克休斯的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球鉆機(jī)數(shù)量同比下降52%，至1073臺(tái)(19年6月為2221臺(tái))。

根據(jù)報(bào)告顯示，鉆機(jī)預(yù)計(jì)將保持相對(duì)平穩(wěn)，直到2021年初，因?yàn)轭A(yù)計(jì)運(yùn)營商將等待幾個(gè)月的石油價(jià)格上漲，然后才開始逐漸增加鉆機(jī)數(shù)量。

在油價(jià)方面，市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將保持持平，不會(huì)立即緩解面臨破產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)油商的壓力。據(jù)brokerage估計(jì)，布倫特原油價(jià)格將穩(wěn)定在40-50美元/桶之間，長期穩(wěn)定在50-60美元/桶。

這不太可能給美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)商任何喘息的機(jī)會(huì)，它們需要油價(jià)遠(yuǎn)高于每桶50美元才能繼續(xù)運(yùn)營。

在供應(yīng)方面，無論是有意的減產(chǎn)(OPEC++)還是無意的減產(chǎn)(由于經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣/破產(chǎn))，似乎都給油價(jià)帶來了上行壓力，但疫情導(dǎo)致的全球封鎖導(dǎo)致了巨大的需求破壞，使油價(jià)處于低位。

像ONGC這樣的上游石油公司對(duì)石油的需求并沒有下降，但對(duì)天然氣的需求下降了大約9。 當(dāng)油價(jià)保持低位時(shí)，印度的上游公司也將面臨壓力，但隨著石油產(chǎn)量停滯和天然氣份額上升，這些公司預(yù)計(jì)將經(jīng)受住當(dāng)前的風(fēng)暴，并變得更強(qiáng)大。

郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil market downturn turns heat on US shale producers

The downturn in the oil market is beginning to impact those who had a fair share in keeping it oversupplied and prices suppressed. The US shale oil producers are beginning to feel the pain of lower oil prices with large-scale increase in bankruptcies.

A few shale companies in the US had already gone bankrupt, with the possibility of a few more on the way.

According to a report by Motilal Oswal Institutional Equities, the total number of E&P (exploration and production) bankruptcies has risen to 20 so far, with the latest victim being Chesapeake Energy, one of the pioneers of the US shale industry, with a total debt of $9 billion.

It expected that the lower prevailing oil prices would result in write-down of $300 billion of global E&P assets.

This is significant considering that exploration had just started to pick up a couple of years back and was expected to peak anytime now. But COVID-19 induced lockdown and prevailing economic slowdown have turned the tables on the sector.

The US rig count has fallen to a record low of 278 units in the week ended June 26, 2020 (decline of 65 per cent since Mar 2020 and 72 per cent YoY), even as oil prices rebounded from historic lows in April, as some producers restarted production.

As per Baker Hughes data, the worldwide rig count has declined 52 per cent YoY to 1,073 units (v/s 2,221 units in Jun'19).

According to a Platts Analytics Spotlight report, rigs are expected to stay relatively flat until early-2021 as operators are expected to wait several months for higher oil prices before starting to gradually increase rig count.

On the oil price front, the market is expected to remain flat, giving no immediately relief to oil producers from facing bankruptcies. According to the brokerage estimates, Brent would stabilize between USD40-50/bbl and settle at USD50-60/bbl in the longer run.

This is unlikely to give any respite to US Shale producers that need oil prices to be well above $50 a barrel to remain in business.

On the supply side, production cuts, both intentional (OPEC+) and unintentional (due to poor economies/bankruptcies), appear to be putting upward pressure on oil prices but global lockdowns on account of COVID-19 has led to huge demand destruction, which is keeping oil prices low.

On the domestic front, upstream oil companies such as ONGC has not seen a fall in demand for oil but gas offtake has fallen by about 9 per cent. The upstream companies in India will too face pressure when oil prices remain low, but with stagnant oil production and rising share of gas, the companies are expected to weather the current storm and emerge stronger.