40美元油價(jià)不足以阻止新一波頁(yè)巖破產(chǎn)潮

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)休斯敦報(bào)道，疫情和油價(jià)暴跌加速了今年美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)的步伐。在2018年第4季度油價(jià)下跌后，2019年美國(guó)能源行業(yè)的申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)數(shù)量已經(jīng)開(kāi)始上升，但今年，美國(guó)能源行業(yè)創(chuàng)下了一些糟糕的記錄，因?yàn)樨?fù)債嚴(yán)重的頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商面臨著過(guò)去幾年大舉借貸的清算。

今年到目前為止，美國(guó)能源行業(yè)破產(chǎn)的公司已超過(guò)了20家，這些公司的負(fù)債總額超過(guò)了5000萬(wàn)美元。根據(jù)彭博社匯編的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，這是自2016年上半年油價(jià)暴跌以來(lái)，今年上半年申請(qǐng)來(lái)自債權(quán)人保護(hù)的最高數(shù)字。僅在6月份，美國(guó)就有7家油氣公司申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)，與2016年4月創(chuàng)下的月度破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)高峰持平。

由于在疫情爆發(fā)之前的幾年里向銀行大量借款，許多美國(guó)石油和天然氣鉆探公司就已經(jīng)靠借債度日。但石油需求的崩潰和油價(jià)的暴跌縮短了負(fù)債公司拖延時(shí)間，加速了破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)的上升趨勢(shì)。

分析師和法律專業(yè)人士預(yù)計(jì)，盡管WTI原油價(jià)格在6月底比4月平均水平上漲了一倍多，至每桶近40美元，但未來(lái)幾個(gè)月美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)仍將出現(xiàn)更多的能源破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)。

據(jù)彭博社估計(jì)，能源行業(yè)申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)的數(shù)量是美國(guó)今年迄今為止第二高，僅次于零售和娛樂(lè)業(yè)的破產(chǎn)數(shù)量。

僅在6月的最后一周里，就有幾家公司申請(qǐng)了破產(chǎn)保護(hù)，其中包括水力壓裂技術(shù)先驅(qū)切薩皮克能源公司。該公司是迄今為止油價(jià)暴跌的最大受害者，也是美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)過(guò)去幾年借貸鉆井的最突出例子。

切薩皮克能源公司已經(jīng)與債權(quán)人達(dá)成協(xié)議，對(duì)其90億美元債務(wù)中的70億美元進(jìn)行重組。

誠(chéng)然，切薩皮克能源公司在沒(méi)有疫情、需求和價(jià)格崩潰的情況下也可以申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)。WM上游團(tuán)隊(duì)首席分析師Alex Beeker表示：“切薩皮克能源公司的這一申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)已經(jīng)醞釀了很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。不管有沒(méi)有Covid-19，這種情況都可能發(fā)生?！?/span>

Beeker說(shuō)：“如果我用一個(gè)詞來(lái)形容切薩皮克能源公司，那就是“過(guò)量”，過(guò)量的負(fù)債，過(guò)量的成本以及在供過(guò)于求市場(chǎng)上過(guò)量的天然氣。

雖然切薩皮克能源公司是過(guò)去一段時(shí)間里美國(guó)能源企業(yè)破產(chǎn)案的頭條新聞，但另外兩家能源企業(yè)也申請(qǐng)了破產(chǎn)保護(hù)，它們是二疊紀(jì)盆地油氣生產(chǎn)商Lilis 能源公司和Sable Permian 資源公司。

Haynes and Boone律師事務(wù)所的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在此之前，1月至5月期間，北美有18家石油和天然氣公司申請(qǐng)了破產(chǎn)保護(hù)，其中包括鉆石海上鉆井公司和懷廷石油公司。

切薩皮克能源公司備受矚目的破產(chǎn)事件表明，近幾年來(lái)美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)“過(guò)量”舉債，正如哈羅德?哈姆在2017年警告的那樣，一些公司最終“把自己鉆到遺忘中”。

美國(guó)能源行業(yè)的融資窗口已經(jīng)關(guān)閉，因?yàn)樵谝咔楸l(fā)前一年多，債權(quán)人和投資者對(duì)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)的態(tài)度已經(jīng)惡化，而油價(jià)4年來(lái)又第二次暴跌。

在這種長(zhǎng)期低油價(jià)的環(huán)境下，美國(guó)越來(lái)越多的石油和天然氣公司開(kāi)始尋求通過(guò)破產(chǎn)法第11章的程序來(lái)重組債務(wù)，尤其是在能源行業(yè)破產(chǎn)最多的德克薩斯州。

美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)的申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)數(shù)字在增加，而業(yè)界普遍的看法是這一趨勢(shì)才剛剛開(kāi)始。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

$40 Oil Isn’t Enough To Prevent A Wave Of Shale Bankruptcies

The coronavirus pandemic and the oil price collapse are accelerating the pace of bankruptcy filings in the U.S. shale patch this year. The number of filings had already started to trend up in 2019 after a drop in prices in Q4 2018, but this year, the U.S. energy industry is setting some grim records as indebted cash-strapped producers face a day of reckoning from the borrowing exuberance of the past years.

So far this year, bankruptcies in the U.S. energy industry have exceeded 20 filings from companies with more than US$50 million in liabilities. This is the highest number of first-half filings for protection from creditors since the first half of 2016, during the previous oil price collapse, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In June alone, seven oil and gas companies filed for Chapter 11, matching the record from the monthly peak in bankruptcy filings set in April 2016.

Many U.S. oil and gas drillers were already living on borrowed time even before the COVID-19 pandemic, thanks to heavy borrowings from banks over the past years. But the crash in oil demand and the collapse in oil prices shortened the time for indebted companies to be able to kick the can down the road, accelerating the upward trend in bankruptcy filings.

Analysts and legal professionals expect more energy bankruptcies in the U.S. shale patch in the coming months even as WTI Crude prices more than doubled to nearly $40 a barrel by the end of June from the average in April.

The number of filings for protection from creditors in the energy sector has been the second-highest so far this year, second only to bankruptcies in the retail and entertainment industry, according to Bloomberg estimates.

In the last week of June alone, several companies filed for Chapter 11 protection, including fracking pioneer Chesapeake Energy, the biggest victim of the price crash so far and the most prominent example of the U.S. shale industry’s modus operandi of the past few years—borrow to drill.

Chesapeake has reached an agreement with creditors to restructure some US$7 billion out of its US$9 billion debt.

Granted, Chesapeake could have resorted to bankruptcy filing even in the absence of the pandemic and the collapse in demand and prices. “This filing has been a long time coming,” Alex Beeker, principal analyst on Wood Mackenzie’s corporate upstream team, said.

“It was likely going to happen with or without Covid-19.”

“If I were to describe Chesapeake in one word, that word is ‘excess’ - excess liabilities, excess costs, excess gas in an oversupplied market, said Beeker.

While Chesapeake was the headline in the U.S. energy bankruptcies this past week, two other energy firms filed for protection from creditors—Permian producers Lilis Energy and Sable Permian Resources.

Before that, between January and May, 18 oil and gas firms in North America filed for bankruptcy, including Diamond Offshore Drilling and Whiting Petroleum, data from law firm Haynes and Boone showed.

Chesapeake’s high-profile bankruptcy this week is indicative of the ‘excess’ in the U.S. shale patch, which had borrowed heavily in recent years, and some companies ultimately ‘drilled themselves into oblivion’ as Harold Hamm had warned back in 2017.

The window of financing for the U.S. energy industry is closed, as creditors and investors had soured on the shale patch more than a year before the pandemic struck, and prices crashed for the second time in four years.

In this low-for-longer price environment, a growing number of oil and gas firms are looking to restructure debt via Chapter 11 proceedings, especially in Texas, where the number of energy bankruptcies is the highest.

Bankruptcy filings are up, and prevailing opinion is that the trend is only beginning.