受油價提振 韓國PPI指數(shù)實現(xiàn)5個月來首次增長

據(jù)7月21日The Korea Herald報道，韓國央行周二表示，受全球油價回升的推動，該國6月份生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)（PPI）環(huán)比上漲0.5%，結(jié)束了長達數(shù)月的下滑。生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)是未來通脹的一個關(guān)鍵衡量標準。

韓國央行公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，韓國所有商品和服務(wù)的生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)環(huán)比微升0.5%，至102.52。受冠狀病毒疫情的影響，在延續(xù)了2月至4月期間的連續(xù)下降后，5月該指數(shù)一直持平。

據(jù)韓國央行稱，全球油價復(fù)蘇推高了工業(yè)產(chǎn)品價格，這對最新數(shù)據(jù)做出了貢獻。

有報道稱，牛津大學(xué)正在研制的疫苗在高級試驗中顯示出樂觀結(jié)果，周二早些時候油價回升。6月包括牲畜在內(nèi)的農(nóng)牧產(chǎn)品價格指數(shù)較上月下跌1.6%，因5月政府緊急現(xiàn)金援助增加了對農(nóng)牧產(chǎn)品的需求，產(chǎn)生了基數(shù)效應(yīng)。與此同時，服務(wù)業(yè)指數(shù)在所述期間月環(huán)比上漲0.3%。

近幾個月來，專家們對通貨緊縮風險表示擔憂，因為通貨緊縮導(dǎo)致消費者支出大幅下降。但最新數(shù)據(jù)表明，也應(yīng)謹慎對待與通脹相關(guān)的風險。Meritz Securities分析師Yoon Yeo-sam表示，增穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策增加了流動性，增加了短期和長期利率差，現(xiàn)在可能會導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹。

早些時候發(fā)布的另一份報告顯示，6月份韓國消費者價格指數(shù)(CPI)同比持平，而5月份同比下降了0.3%。

據(jù)韓國央行預(yù)測，2020年韓國消費者價格指數(shù)將同比增長0.3%，將連續(xù)第二年低于2%的長期目標。

王佳晶 摘譯自 The Korea Herald

原文如下：

Buoyed by oil prices, producer prices see first growth in 5 months

Buoyed by the recovery of global oil prices, South Korea’s producer price index rose 0.5 percent on-month in June, ending a monthslong slide, the nation’s central bank said Tuesday.

The producer price index for all commodities and services here inched up 0.5 percent on-month to 102.52, data released by the Bank of Korea showed. It had remained flat in May after extending a decline in the February-April period, weighed down by the coronavirus pandemic.

“The recovery of global oil prices that pushed up the prices of industrial products” contributed to the latest reading, according to the BOK.

Oil prices recovered early Tuesday on the back of reports that a coronavirus vaccine the University of Oxford is developing showed promising results in advanced trials.

The price index of farmed products -- including livestock -- shed 1.6 percent on-month in June, due to a base effect stemming from the government’s emergency cash handout in May, which increased the demand for the products. The index for the service sector, meanwhile, gained 0.3 percent on-month in the cited period. Producer prices serve as a key yardstick for future inflation.

Experts have voiced concerns of deflation risks in recent months, as the pandemic led to sharp decline in consumer spending. But the latest reading now indicates that the economy should be cautious of risks tied to inflation as well, they said.

Dovish monetary policies that have increased liquidity and difference between short- and long-term interest rates could now contribute to inflation, according to Meritz Securities analyst Yoon Yeo-sam.

The country’s consumer prices remained flat on-year in June, following a 0.3 percent on-year contraction in May, separate reports released earlier showed.

The BOK has projected the country’s consumer prices to gain 0.3 percent on-year in 2020, missing the country’s long-term target of 2 percent by more than 1 percentage point for a second consecutive year.