雷斯塔能源：美國(guó)石油供應(yīng)量正在增加

據(jù)7月21日Oilfield Technology報(bào)道，受歐盟復(fù)蘇協(xié)議的支持，周二油價(jià)略有上漲。在其它方面，雪佛龍收購(gòu)來(lái)寶能源(Noble Energy)是當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期規(guī)模最大的一筆交易。

Rystad Energy石油市場(chǎng)主管比約爾納·通豪根(Bjornar Tonhaugen)就油價(jià)和這筆交易發(fā)表了評(píng)論:盡管本月迄今為止，布倫特原油2美元的極窄交易區(qū)間表明其幾乎失去了活力。

上午，基準(zhǔn)石油期貨價(jià)格走高。歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人已就恢復(fù)基金和機(jī)制達(dá)成協(xié)議，以幫助歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)從二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中重建，歐洲交易員對(duì)此反映迅猛，布倫特原油價(jià)格正試圖突破每桶43.79美元的最高收盤價(jià)。

盡管7500億歐元的協(xié)議不會(huì)立即刺激石油消費(fèi)，但它將通過(guò)額外的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，為歐盟的中期石油需求前景提供重要支持。

盡管交易員們自上周五以來(lái)就意識(shí)到了談判的存在，但達(dá)成協(xié)議總是會(huì)為積極的市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)提供額外的樂(lè)觀情緒。

除此之外，市場(chǎng)很平靜。然而，這很可能是暴風(fēng)雨前的寧?kù)o。如果不是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)再次出現(xiàn)病例激增，當(dāng)前油價(jià)或許會(huì)達(dá)到更高的水平。

全球原油市場(chǎng)7月的日產(chǎn)量缺口為320萬(wàn)桶，即使歐佩克在8月逐步減少減產(chǎn)，8月和9月的日產(chǎn)量缺口仍將在250萬(wàn)桶左右。因此，第二波出行限制的威脅抑制了油價(jià)上漲。

另一方面，超級(jí)巨頭雪佛龍(Chevron)將收購(gòu)來(lái)寶能源(Noble Energy)，利用石油市場(chǎng)低迷的時(shí)機(jī)，確保在二疊紀(jì)(Permian)等上游板塊的戰(zhàn)略地位。二疊紀(jì)是油氣最多產(chǎn)的頁(yè)巖盆地。

在并購(gòu)活動(dòng)的背景下，通過(guò)重啟在危機(jī)最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期被關(guān)閉的產(chǎn)能，美國(guó)整體的石油供應(yīng)量正在增加，預(yù)計(jì)8月份將達(dá)到1120萬(wàn)桶/天，而5月份為1070萬(wàn)桶/天。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Oilfield Technology

原文如下：

Rystad Energy comments on oil prices and Chevron acquistion of Noble Energy

Oil prices are having some modest gains today, supported from the EU recovery deal. Elsewhere Chevron’s Noble Energy purchase marks the largest deal during the ongoing downturn.

Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen, has commented on oil prices and the deal:

"Brent has not suffered a fatality, although its extremely narrow US$2 trading band so far this month suggests it barely has a pulse.

This morning, benchmark oil futures are trading higher. Brent is attempting to breach its highest closing price of US$43.79 as European traders wake up to the news that EU leaders have reached a deal on the recovery fund and mechanism to help rebuild the European economy from the worst economic recession since WWII.

Although the €750 billion deal will not immediately boost oil consumption, it will provide important support for the bloc’s medium term oil demand prospects, via additional economic growth.

Even though traders were aware of the negotiations since Friday, agreeing on a deal always provides the extra optimism for a positive market reaction.

Otherwise in the market, it’s so quiet. However, quiet before the storm, we believe. Oil prices would already have been higher now, if it wasn’t for the renewed surge in cases in the US.

Why? The global crude market is in deficit to the tune of 3.2 million bpd in July, and even with a tapering of OPEC+ cuts in August, will remain in deficit in August and September too of around 2.5 million bpd.

So the threat of a second wave of lockdowns is holding oil price gains back. An outright second wave of lockdowns will send oil prices lower.

In other news, the supermajor, Chevron is buying Noble Energy, taking advantage of oil market distress while securing strategic upstream positions in the Permian, the most prolific shale basin, among other locations.

In the background of M&A activity, overall US oil supply is ramping up through reactivation of shut-in volumes from the height of the crisis and is expected to reach 11.2 million bpd in August versus 10.7 million bpd in May."