未來(lái)三年海灣產(chǎn)油國(guó)將累積4900億美元債務(wù)

據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站7月20日消息 全球評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)周一表示，繼油價(jià)暴跌和冠狀病毒危機(jī)之后，阿拉伯海灣國(guó)家將在2020-2023年間累積多達(dá)4900億美元的政府赤字。

海灣合作委員會(huì)（GCC）的六個(gè)國(guó)家：巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔爾、沙特阿拉伯和阿聯(lián)酋，包括歐佩克最大的產(chǎn)油國(guó)沙特阿拉伯、阿聯(lián)酋和科威特，這些國(guó)家受到了低油價(jià)和今年COVID-19疫情的雙重打擊，這些國(guó)家的財(cái)政狀況緊張，政府在主權(quán)財(cái)富基金中的緩沖減少。

油價(jià)暴跌和全球石油需求減少已經(jīng)迫使世界最大的石油出口國(guó)沙特阿拉伯將其增值稅（VAT）提高兩倍，并暫停生活費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼，這是為拯救沙特財(cái)政而采取的新一輪痛苦緊縮措施的一部分。

上周，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）表示，油價(jià)暴跌和減產(chǎn)將嚴(yán)重打擊中東和北非的石油出口國(guó)，預(yù)計(jì)這些國(guó)家今年的石油總收入將比2019年大幅下降2700億美元。

IMF在最新發(fā)布的中東地區(qū)最新報(bào)告中表示，今年早些時(shí)候油價(jià)的大幅下跌給中東產(chǎn)油國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了進(jìn)一步的不利因素。此外，由于遏制疫情而導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮。

IMF一位高級(jí)官員在6月底的預(yù)測(cè)顯示，由于油價(jià)暴跌，僅海灣地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)今年就將出現(xiàn)7.6%的綜合收縮。

這是對(duì)國(guó)際信貸機(jī)構(gòu)早先預(yù)測(cè)的大幅下調(diào)，此前該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)海灣經(jīng)濟(jì)體將出現(xiàn)2.7%的負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。

IMF中東和中亞部主任吉哈德?阿祖爾在最近的一次網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會(huì)上表示：“石油行業(yè)將大幅萎縮7.0%左右，同時(shí)非石油行業(yè)也將下降?！?/span>

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Gulf Oil Producers To Amass $490 Billion Debt By 2023

Following to the oil price crash and the coronavirus crisis, the Arab Gulf countries are set to accumulate as much as US$490 billion in combined government deficits between 2020 and 2023, Ratings said on Monday.

The six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—include OPEC’s largest producers Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. Those countries have been hit by the double whammy of low oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic this year, which has strained their fiscal positions and reduced government buffers in their sovereign wealth funds.

The price crash and the reduced demand for oil in the pandemic have already forced the world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, to triple its value-added tax (VAT) and suspend cost-of-living allowances as part of a new round of painful austerity measures to save the Kingdom’s finances.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the price plunge and the production cuts would hit oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) hard, with the combined oil income for those countries expected to plummet by US$270 billion this year compared to 2019.

The sharp decline in oil prices earlier this year adds further headwinds to the economies of the Middle Eastern oil producers, on top of shrinking economies due to the lockdowns to contain the pandemic, the IMF said in its latest update on the region.

The economies in the Gulf alone are set to experience a combined contraction of 7.6 percent this year because of the oil price crash, a senior IMF official forecast at the end of June.

This is a sharp downward revision from an earlier forecast by the international lender, which saw the Gulf economies experiencing negative growth of 2.7 percent.

“The oil sector will shrink sharply by around 7.0 percent and it will be accompanied by a drop in the non-oil sector also,” Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia department of the International Monetary Fund, said at a recent webinar.