印度原油進(jìn)口量到年底可能會(huì)猛增

據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站7月30日消息 分析人士向《阿拉伯商業(yè)報(bào)》表示，COVID-19流感大流行已經(jīng)給世界第三大石油進(jìn)口國印度帶來了生活方式的改變，印度現(xiàn)在越來越多的人更喜歡用自己的車輛上下班，這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致原油進(jìn)口增加，對(duì)燃料的需求也會(huì)增加。

由于冠狀病毒大流行，印度4月和5月的大部分時(shí)間都處于封鎖狀態(tài)，現(xiàn)在人們似乎盡可能避免乘坐公共交通工具。印度乘用車和兩輪車的使用只會(huì)增長，分析師預(yù)計(jì)這將轉(zhuǎn)化為對(duì)成品油的需求增加，從而導(dǎo)致原油進(jìn)口增加。

獨(dú)立能源顧問Tsunduru Muralidhar向《阿拉伯商業(yè)報(bào)》詹姆斯·馬修表示：“我們已經(jīng)看到印度城市和城鎮(zhèn)道路上使用兩輪車和四輪車的激增，因?yàn)槿藗円恢北苊馐褂霉步煌üぞ呱舷掳??！?/span>

德勤印度能源部門分析師Kalpana Jain在接受《阿拉伯商業(yè)報(bào)》采訪時(shí)表示，乘用車和摩托車的使用量增加，加上經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的復(fù)蘇，將增加印度未來幾個(gè)季度的石油需求。

6月底，印度石油部長Dharmendra Pradhan表示，到9月底，印度的燃料需求將反彈至危機(jī)前的水平。

然而，據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，來自業(yè)內(nèi)消息人士的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，印度6月份原油進(jìn)口量大幅下滑至2011年以來的最低水平，煉油企業(yè)因維護(hù)和需求減弱而購買的原油減少。

印度需求減弱可能是石油市場的一個(gè)擔(dān)憂。煉油廠官員本周向路透社表示，煉油廠目前正在降低加工率，因?yàn)槿剂闲枨螅◤?月和5月的低點(diǎn)上升）本月已經(jīng)放緩，原因是燃料價(jià)格上漲，印度部分地區(qū)再次陷入局部停工狀態(tài)，而季風(fēng)雨季也阻礙了經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和運(yùn)輸。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

India’s Crude Oil Imports Could Jump By Year End

The COVID-19 pandemic has already brought a lifestyle change in the world’s third-largest oil importer, India, where a growing number of people now prefer commuting with their own vehicles, which will likely lead to increased crude imports with higher demand for fuels, analysts told Arabian Business.

India was under lockdown for most of April and May because of the coronavirus pandemic, and now people seem to be avoiding commuting on public transportation where possible. The use of passenger cars and two-wheelers in India is only set to grow, which analysts expect will translate into higher demand for refined oil products and consequently, higher crude oil imports.

“Already we are witnessing a surge in the use of both 2-wheelers and 4-wheelers on the Indian roads across cities and towns as people have been shunning use of public transport to commute,” independent energy consultant Tsunduru Muralidhar told Arabian Business’ James Mathew.

The higher use of passenger vehicles and motorcycles, coupled with recovering economic activities are set to increase India’s oil demand in the coming quarters, Kalpana Jain, energy sector analyst with Deloitte India, told Arabian Business.

At the end of June, Indian Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said that fuel demand in India was set to rebound to pre-crisis levels by the end of September.

Yet, India’s crude oil imports slumped in June to their lowest levels since 2011, with oil refiners buying less crude because of maintenance and weaker demand, according to data from industry sources reported by Reuters.

Weakening demand in India may be a concern for the oil markets. Refiners are now cutting processing rates because fuel demand – up from the lows in April and May – has slowed this month as fuel prices are higher and parts of India are again under local lockdowns, while the monsoon rain season is also stalling economic activity and transport, officials at refineries told Reuters this week.