加拿大油井鉆探數(shù)量預(yù)測(cè)再次下調(diào)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月30日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)加拿大石油服務(wù)協(xié)會(huì)稱，今年加拿大將鉆探約2800口新井。這是PSAC今年以來(lái)在持續(xù)的油價(jià)危機(jī)下進(jìn)行的第三次下調(diào)。據(jù)加拿大新聞社報(bào)道，其先前的修訂為3,100口井是50年以來(lái)的低點(diǎn)。

去年，加拿大的油氣公司仍然鉆了4,900口井。 盡管由于管道容量不足和全球供過(guò)于求而導(dǎo)致加拿大石油價(jià)格低廉。

油價(jià)無(wú)疑是企業(yè)決定今年減少油井?dāng)?shù)量的一個(gè)因素，但這并不是唯一的原因。據(jù)加拿大石油服務(wù)協(xié)會(huì)臨時(shí)首席執(zhí)行官伊麗莎白·阿昆（Elizabeth Aquin）稱，整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的緩慢復(fù)蘇以及石油和天然氣鉆探公司的高債務(wù)水平也在發(fā)揮作用。

有趣的是，就在一天前，IHS Markit預(yù)測(cè)，盡管新冠疫情對(duì)能源行業(yè)產(chǎn)生了不利影響，但加拿大的油砂產(chǎn)量仍有望增長(zhǎng)。

IHS Markit的兩位資深分析師指出，新冠疫情的影響已經(jīng)改變了較低投資期的驅(qū)動(dòng)力，不一定改變了長(zhǎng)期預(yù)期的方向。他們表示，預(yù)計(jì)2030年油砂日產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到380萬(wàn)桶，僅比危機(jī)前的預(yù)期少10萬(wàn)桶。

對(duì)本行業(yè)而言更積極的跡象是，本月早些時(shí)候有報(bào)道稱加拿大的油氣生產(chǎn)商正在恢復(fù)縮減的產(chǎn)量。據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道，隨著石油價(jià)格從四月份的多年低點(diǎn)中恢復(fù)，關(guān)閉的100萬(wàn)桶/日的產(chǎn)量中約有五分之一已恢復(fù)。

油砂巨頭Cenovus的首席執(zhí)行官表示，沒有人會(huì)對(duì)我們的生產(chǎn)滿負(fù)荷恢復(fù)感到驚訝。在我們目前的水平上，我們的現(xiàn)金流是顯非?？捎^。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下:

Canadian Oil Drilling Forecast Gets Slashed Again

Some 2,800 new wells will be drilled in Canada this year, according to the Petroleum Services Association of the country. This is the third downward revision the PSAC has made so far this year amid the continuing oil price crisis. Its previous revision was to a 50-year low of 3,100 wells, the Canadian Press reports.

Last year, Canadian oil and gas companies drilled 4,900 wells. That was despite the low prices for Canadian oil resulting from a shortage of pipeline capacity and the global glut.

Oil prices are certainly a factor in the businesses’ decision to drill fewer wells this year, but it is not the only one. A slow recovery of the wider economy and high debt levels among oil and gas drillers are also at play, according to the interim chief executive of the Petroleum Services Association of Canada, Elizabeth Aquin.

Interestingly, just a day earlier, IHS Markit forecast that oil sands production in Canada was set to grow despite the adverse effects of the pandemic on the energy industry.

“The impact of COVID19 has changed the driver of the lower investment period, not necessarily the direction of long-term expectations,” two senior IHS Markit analysts noted, saying they expected oil sands output to reach 3.8 million bpd in 2030, just 100,000 bpd less than pre-crisis projections.

In more positive signs for the industry, earlier this month, reports emerged that Canadian oil and gas producers were bringing back curtailed output. According to Bloomberg, about a fifth of the 1 million bpd in shut-in production was being brought back as oil prices recovered from the multi-year lows seen in April.

“Nobody should be surprised to see our production moving back to full production capacity. We are significantly cash-flow positive at the levels we’re at now,” said the chief executive of oil sands major Cenovus.