哥倫比亞石油工業(yè)正顯示出復(fù)蘇跡象

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)9月7日報道，盡管由于油價長期低迷，今年8月全球鉆機數(shù)量仍遠低于去年同期，但哥倫比亞至關(guān)重要的石油工業(yè)似乎正在復(fù)蘇。據(jù)貝克休斯（Baker Hughes）上周五報道稱，在這個飽受折磨的拉丁美洲國家中，有7臺在用石油鉆機，而沒有在用天然氣鉆機。 這是連續(xù)第三個月鉆機數(shù)量增加，盡管仍不到2019年同期的三分之一。

直到今年5月底，隨著強制封鎖的放松，在哥倫比亞運營的能源公司開始重啟非必要的業(yè)務(wù)，關(guān)鍵經(jīng)濟部門重新開放。這對哥倫比亞很重要，因為這個安第斯山脈國家依賴石油生產(chǎn)作為一個關(guān)鍵的經(jīng)濟驅(qū)動力。根據(jù)中央政府統(tǒng)計機構(gòu)DANE的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年7月，石油占出口總值的25%，約合6300億美元。這意味著石油和衍生產(chǎn)品價值急劇下降了51%，這可以歸咎于石油產(chǎn)量大幅下降和價格大幅下跌。

今年7月份，哥倫比亞石油日均產(chǎn)量為73.5萬桶，雖然比一個月前高出近1%，但明顯低于2019年同期的86.9萬桶。

今年3月，油價暴跌及新冠疫情爆發(fā)，哥倫比亞石油工業(yè)的前景一度黯淡。由于油價下跌，石油公司關(guān)閉了不具經(jīng)濟效益的生產(chǎn)，并暫停了非必要的業(yè)務(wù)，哥倫比亞至關(guān)重要的石油行業(yè)的資本支出和投資大幅下降。這場危機是在樂觀的2020年開局之后出現(xiàn)的。今年1月，哥倫比亞的最大工業(yè)機構(gòu)哥倫比亞石油協(xié)會 (ACP)預(yù)測，年投資將同比增長23%，達到近50億美元。隨著油價暴跌的加劇，4月份ACP將這一數(shù)字大幅削減，由于石油公司大幅削減開支，削減了10億多美元。據(jù)估計，維護和開發(fā)支出將減少6.7億美元，勘探投資預(yù)計將減少3.7億美元。

勘探減少尤其令人擔(dān)憂，因為哥倫比亞的石油儲量有限，總計僅略高于20億桶，按目前的速度，大約相當于六年的產(chǎn)量。對于一個嚴重依賴石油出口為現(xiàn)金短缺的中央政府創(chuàng)造財政收入、推動經(jīng)濟增長的國家來說，鉆機數(shù)量的增加是一個積極的指標。另一個好消息是，自波哥大9月份重新開放經(jīng)濟以來，哥倫比亞三大私營石油生產(chǎn)商正在提高產(chǎn)量。

郝芬 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Colombia’s Oil Industry Is Showing Signs Of Recovery

While the August 2020 global rig count remains significantly lower than for the same period last year, because of oil’s protracted price slump, Colombia’s economically crucial petroleum industry appears to be recovering. Baker Hughes reported on Friday that there were seven active rigs in the strife-torn Latin American country, all of the oil rigs with no active natural gas rigs. This is the third straight month where the volume of operational rigs has increased, although it is still less than a third of what it was for the same month in 2019.

It was back in late-May 2020 that energy companies operating in Colombia began to recommence non-essential operations as the compulsory lockdown was eased to allow. crucial economic sectors to reopen. This is important for Colombia because of the Andean country’s reliance on oil production as a key economic driver. For July 2020 data from the central government’s statistical agency, DANE, showed petroleum was responsible for 25%, or $630 billion, of exports by value. This represents a steep 51% decline in the value of petroleum and derivative products which can be blamed on sharply lower oil production and substantially weaker prices.

During July, Colombia produced an average of 735,000 barrels of oil daily which, while almost 1% greater than a month earlier, was significantly lower than the 869,000 pumped for that month in 2019.

The outlook for Colombia’s petroleum industry appeared dire when oil prices collapsed in March 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic emerged. Capital spending and investment in Colombia’s vital oil industry fell sharply as oil companies shuttered uneconomic production because of weaker prices and suspended non-essential operations. This crisis emerged after an optimistic start to 2020. In January, Colombia’s peak industry body, the Colombian Petroleum Association (ACP Spanish acronym), predicted that annual investment would grow 23% year over year to almost $5 billion. That number was slashed by the ACP in April, as the oil price rout bit deeper, by just over $1 billion because of significant spending reductions by oil companies. This was estimated would see maintenance and development spending fall by $670 million while investment in exploration was expected to decline $370 million. Reduced exploration is particularly worrying because of Colombia’s limited oil reserves totaling just over 2 billion barrels or roughly six years of production at the current rate. The rising rig count is a positive indicator for a country heavily dependent on oil exports to generate fiscal income for the cash strapped central government and drive economic growth. In further good news, Colombia’s three largest privately-owned oil producers are ramping up production since Bogota reopened the economy in September.