油價(jià)走高但仍不是需求反彈信號(hào)

據(jù)9月10日Investing.com報(bào)道，油價(jià)正在走高，但仍未達(dá)到讓石油行業(yè)恢復(fù)元?dú)馑璧姆磸椫λ剑绕涫窃谧罱蛢r(jià)大幅下跌的情況下。不過(guò)令人鼓舞的是，隨著價(jià)格走高，價(jià)差有所收窄，但12月20日/ 12月21日WTI的期貨溢價(jià)仍然堅(jiān)挺，這是最不具前瞻性的預(yù)期。

但在目前的價(jià)格水平上，貿(mào)易公司可能會(huì)開(kāi)始考慮購(gòu)買(mǎi)以備未來(lái)交割，并可能開(kāi)始競(jìng)購(gòu)離岸儲(chǔ)存。在油輪費(fèi)率如此低迷的情況下，如果歐佩克沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步干預(yù)，且油輪利率保持有利，貿(mào)易公司的需求可能提供強(qiáng)勁的支撐。

原油價(jià)格下跌的催化劑還包括股票市場(chǎng)的拋售，尤其是特斯拉（Tesla）的科技股似乎出現(xiàn)了泡沫，反原油交易的縮影，本周大幅下跌。因此，當(dāng)股市再次飆升時(shí)，油價(jià)將會(huì)推高，這也是有道理的，而這正是一夜之間發(fā)生的事情。不過(guò)，投資者可能需要填補(bǔ)周二納斯達(dá)克市場(chǎng)的空白，才能推動(dòng)油價(jià)進(jìn)一步上漲。

當(dāng)然，人們對(duì)新冠肺炎疫情的擔(dān)憂仍然存在，需要采取微妙的平衡措施，以使經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)到新的正常狀態(tài)，并控制北半球可能出現(xiàn)的病例上升。

在這方面，阿斯利康昨天暫停了所有疫苗臨床試驗(yàn)，這無(wú)疑擾亂了石油市場(chǎng)，過(guò)去一個(gè)月，石油市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始對(duì)疫苗成功變得樂(lè)觀。據(jù)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》報(bào)道，阿斯利康公司的新冠肺炎病毒試驗(yàn)可能在下周恢復(fù)，疫苗前途明朗。在一名英國(guó)參與者出現(xiàn)不明原因的疾病后，這家制藥公司暫停了疫苗試驗(yàn)。

事實(shí)上，布倫特原油超45美元/桶的價(jià)格已經(jīng)提前復(fù)蘇，因?yàn)榇蟛糠值涂湛礉q的倉(cāng)位已經(jīng)被消費(fèi)殆盡。同時(shí)，交易員們發(fā)現(xiàn)自己處于牛市的盡頭，還一頭撞上了最大的價(jià)格障礙之一，即“夏末”季節(jié)性需求的減弱。因此，市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入了不能上升必須下降的模式，因?yàn)楂@利回吐。

盡管如此，由于今年夏天美國(guó)的駕車(chē)和旅行處于歷史上的低迷水平，需求方面受到的影響可以從疲軟的煉油利潤(rùn)率中看出，這促使沙特10月份減產(chǎn)。在美國(guó)達(dá)成刺激協(xié)議或美國(guó)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)更廣泛改善之前，情況不太可能好轉(zhuǎn)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

原文如下：

Asia Session: Oil Trading Higher, But Still Not The Rallying Cry Needed

Oil is trading higher, but still not the rallying cry needed to get the oil complex back on its feet, especially in the wake of the latest precipitous falls. Encouragingly though, as prices shift higher, spreads have tightened a bit, but the contango remains solid with the WTI Dec20/Dec21 -3.62 and provides the poorest forward-looking optics of them all.

But at these levels, trading houses might begin to think about buying for future delivery and could start bidding for offshore storage, which is typically the case when tanker rates are as depressed as they are right now. The slope and curve economics are not quite there at the moment, but in the absence of further OPEC interventions, should the curve steepen more and tanker rates remain favorable, trading house demand could provide a keen level of support.

The catalyst for the fall in crude has also been the sell-off in equity markets and especially what appears to have been a bubble in tech stocks where Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), the epitome of the anti-crude oil play, tumbled massively this week. So it would make sense also that as stock markets surge again, oil prices will push higher, and that's exactly what happened overnight. Still, investors may need to fill Tuesday's Nasdaq gap to get oil prices kicking into a larger gear.

In the background, of course, continues to be COVID concerns and the delicate balancing act needed to return economies to a new normal and manage the likely rise in cases in the northern hemisphere when social activities move indoors, and the virus could spread more aggressively.

In this regard, AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) pausing all vaccine clinical trials yesterday certainly roiled the oil markets that had started to become more optimistic about a vaccine over the last month. However, there is light at the end of the vaccine tunnel as AstraZeneca's COVID-19 trials may resume next week, according to the Financial Times. The drugmaker had suspended its vaccine trials after an unexplained illness in a UK participant. And this pivot is being consumed on the positive side of the ledger.

In reality, prices above Brent $45/bbl were getting ahead of the recovery as most of the low hanging bullish fruit had been consumed. And traders simultaneously found themselves at the end of the bullish runway running headlong long into one of the biggest price impediments of them all, the "end of summer" seasonality waning demand. So markets shifted into what can't go up must go down mode as profit-taking initially got the ball rolling downhill, then all the rest of the knowns pilled on top.

Still, with driving and travel in the US at a historically depressed level this past summer, the impacted demand side can be seen in the weak refining margin environment prompting the cut in Saudi OSPs for October. And the thought here is that things are unlikely to turn better until we get a US stimulus agreement or broader improvements are seen in the US employment data.