花旗:2021年油價(jià)將回到每桶60美元

據(jù)彭博社9月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，花旗集團(tuán)放出樂(lè)觀消息:2021年底前油價(jià)將上漲至每桶60美元。

花旗大宗商品研究全球主管Ed Morse接受采訪時(shí)表示："在我們的基本情況下，價(jià)格上漲是因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)趨于供需平衡，大量庫(kù)存被消耗?！?/span>

最近幾周，由于冠狀病毒頑固地持續(xù)存在，以及歐佩克+讓削減的石油供應(yīng)重返市場(chǎng)，石油庫(kù)存的減少速度似乎有所放緩。這導(dǎo)致全球基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油價(jià)格本月迄今下跌了約12%。

Morse稱，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，全球石油消費(fèi)需要到2021年底才能回到2019年的每日1.01億桶的水平?；ㄆ祛A(yù)計(jì)，全球基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油2021年的平均價(jià)格將在每桶55美元左右，年底前上漲至每桶60美元大關(guān)，屆時(shí)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格將回升至每桶58美元。目前布倫特原油價(jià)格接近每桶40美元。

不過(guò)，大宗商品交易巨頭托克集團(tuán)(Trafigura Group)預(yù)計(jì)，由于需求疲弱，原油庫(kù)存將在今年年底前繼續(xù)增加，市場(chǎng)在今后幾個(gè)月里會(huì)變得更糟。相比之下，花旗預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油價(jià)格將攀升，第四季度將達(dá)到每桶48美元。

Morse稱，對(duì)花旗而言，石化原料和汽油將是燃料行業(yè)最大的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力，而航空燃料的消費(fèi)預(yù)計(jì)將在2024年至2025年卷土重來(lái)。不過(guò)，布蘭特原油突破每桶60美元將是短暫的，因油價(jià)上漲將導(dǎo)致美國(guó)產(chǎn)量反彈，并且還有幾個(gè)未知因素可能會(huì)影響市場(chǎng)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Citi Has a Message for Oil Bulls: $60 Oil to Return by 2021

Citigroup Inc. has a message to cheer up despairing oil bulls: prices will get back to $60 a barrel before the end of 2021.

“We’re bullish definitely,” Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citi, said in an interview during the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference. “In our base case, prices go up because the market balances” and gigantic inventories are drawn down, he said.

The rate at which those stockpiles are shrinking appears to have slowed in recent weeks as the coronavirus proved stubbornly persistent and the OPEC+ alliance returned barrels to the market. That’s pushed global benchmark Brent crude down around 12% so far this month.

It will take until late 2021 for global oil consumption to return to the 2019 level of 101 million barrels a day due to growth in economy, Morse said. Citi sees global benchmark Brent crude, which is currently trading near $40 a barrel, averaging around $55 in 2021 before getting back to the $60 mark by the end of the year. West Texas Intermediate will recover to $58 by then.

Commodity trading giant Trafigura Group, however, expects crude stockpiles to increase through the end of this year on weak demand, with the market to look “worse in a couple of months from now.” That compares with Citi’s prediction for Brent oil to climb and average $48 a barrel during the fourth quarter.

For Citi, petrochemical feedstock and gasoline will be the biggest growth drivers for fuels, while the consumption of jet fuel is expected to stage a comeback in 2024-2025, Morse said.

Brent’s move back above $60 could be short-lived, however, as higher prices will lead to a rebound in American production, Morse said. There are also several unknown factors that could affect the market, he said.