EIA預測美國頁巖油產量將繼續(xù)下降

據油價網2020年9月15日休斯敦報道，美國能源信息署(EIA)在其最新一期鉆井生產力報告中表示，美國10月份頁巖油日產量將減少6.8萬桶，除二疊紀頁巖遠景區(qū)外，其它6個頁巖遠景區(qū)10月份的頁巖油產量都將出現下降。

盡管二疊紀頁巖遠景區(qū)10月份的頁巖油產量預計將日增2.3萬桶，至417.3萬桶，但僅僅奈厄布拉勒頁巖遠景區(qū)10月份下降的頁巖油產量就將抵消這一產量的增長。在鷹福特頁巖遠景區(qū)，10月份頁巖油日產量將減少2.8萬桶，降幅最大，而阿納達科、巴肯和阿巴拉契亞頁巖遠景區(qū)10月份的頁巖油日產量將分別減少2萬桶、1.9萬桶和1萬桶。

這意味著美國10月份的頁巖油日總產量可能平均為764萬桶，低于9月份的770.8萬桶。

美國頁巖遠景區(qū)的石油產量在春季末急劇下降，原因是油價暴跌導致許多產油井無利可圖，甚至出現虧損。由于油價仍比年初水準低大約40%，且前景黯淡，10月份的油價下跌可能不會是頁巖油面臨的最后一個月下跌。

石油需求前景對油價來說仍然是唯一的最不利因素，這方面的最新打擊是英國石油公司的2020年能源展望報告。根據該報告，全球石油需求可能永遠無法恢復到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的水平，這意味著全球石油消費可能已在去年見頂。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Production Continues To Decline

Crude oil production in the U.S. shale patch is set to decline by 68,000 bpd next month, with every play registering declines in output except the Permian, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report.

While production in the Permian is expected to increase by 23,000 bpd to 4,173 million barrels daily, output in the Niobrara shale play alone will offset this with an equal decline. In the Eagle Ford, production is set to decline by 28,000 bpd—the biggest decline—while production in the Anadarko, Bakken, and Appalachia plays is seen to fall by 20,000 bpd, 19,000 bpd, and 1,000 bpd, respectively.

This means total shale oil production in October could average 7.64 million bpd daily next month, down from 7.708 million bpd this month.

Oil production across U.S. shale plays fell sharply in late spring as the oil price collapse made a lot of wells unprofitable and even loss-making. With oil prices still around 40 percent below their levels from the start of the year and the outlook negative, the October decline may not be the last monthly one for the shale patch.

The outlook on oil demand remains the single most negative factor for oil price, with the latest blow in this respect being BP’s 2020 Energy Outlook, according to which oil demand may never return to pre-pandemic levels, meaning the peak in global oil consumption might have been reached last year.