EIA預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)頁巖油產(chǎn)量將繼續(xù)下降

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2020年9月15日休斯敦報(bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)在其最新一期鉆井生產(chǎn)力報(bào)告中表示，美國(guó)10月份頁巖油日產(chǎn)量將減少6.8萬桶，除二疊紀(jì)頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)外，其它6個(gè)頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)10月份的頁巖油產(chǎn)量都將出現(xiàn)下降。

盡管二疊紀(jì)頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)10月份的頁巖油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將日增2.3萬桶，至417.3萬桶，但僅僅奈厄布拉勒頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)10月份下降的頁巖油產(chǎn)量就將抵消這一產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)。在鷹福特頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)，10月份頁巖油日產(chǎn)量將減少2.8萬桶，降幅最大，而阿納達(dá)科、巴肯和阿巴拉契亞頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)10月份的頁巖油日產(chǎn)量將分別減少2萬桶、1.9萬桶和1萬桶。

這意味著美國(guó)10月份的頁巖油日總產(chǎn)量可能平均為764萬桶，低于9月份的770.8萬桶。

美國(guó)頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)的石油產(chǎn)量在春季末急劇下降，原因是油價(jià)暴跌導(dǎo)致許多產(chǎn)油井無利可圖，甚至出現(xiàn)虧損。由于油價(jià)仍比年初水準(zhǔn)低大約40%，且前景黯淡，10月份的油價(jià)下跌可能不會(huì)是頁巖油面臨的最后一個(gè)月下跌。

石油需求前景對(duì)油價(jià)來說仍然是唯一的最不利因素，這方面的最新打擊是英國(guó)石油公司的2020年能源展望報(bào)告。根據(jù)該報(bào)告，全球石油需求可能永遠(yuǎn)無法恢復(fù)到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的水平，這意味著全球石油消費(fèi)可能已在去年見頂。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Production Continues To Decline

Crude oil production in the U.S. shale patch is set to decline by 68,000 bpd next month, with every play registering declines in output except the Permian, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report.

While production in the Permian is expected to increase by 23,000 bpd to 4,173 million barrels daily, output in the Niobrara shale play alone will offset this with an equal decline. In the Eagle Ford, production is set to decline by 28,000 bpd—the biggest decline—while production in the Anadarko, Bakken, and Appalachia plays is seen to fall by 20,000 bpd, 19,000 bpd, and 1,000 bpd, respectively.

This means total shale oil production in October could average 7.64 million bpd daily next month, down from 7.708 million bpd this month.

Oil production across U.S. shale plays fell sharply in late spring as the oil price collapse made a lot of wells unprofitable and even loss-making. With oil prices still around 40 percent below their levels from the start of the year and the outlook negative, the October decline may not be the last monthly one for the shale patch.

The outlook on oil demand remains the single most negative factor for oil price, with the latest blow in this respect being BP’s 2020 Energy Outlook, according to which oil demand may never return to pre-pandemic levels, meaning the peak in global oil consumption might have been reached last year.