高盛預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油價(jià)格年底前將觸及每桶49美元

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2020年9月18日休斯敦報(bào)道，一直看好石油行情的全球歷史最悠久和規(guī)模最大投資銀行之一的高盛集團(tuán)預(yù)計(jì)今年第4季前石油市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)每天大約300萬(wàn)桶原油的缺口，布蘭特原油價(jià)格將從9月18日早些時(shí)候的每桶43美元反彈至今年年底的每桶49美元。

根據(jù)路透社刊登的一份來(lái)自高盛集團(tuán)分析師的最新報(bào)告，全球最近的浮式石油儲(chǔ)備更多地是“暫時(shí)的庫(kù)存配置動(dòng)態(tài)”，而不是新的供過(guò)于求的信號(hào)。

高盛集團(tuán)分析師們表示：“我們估計(jì)，石油市場(chǎng)仍處于赤字狀態(tài)，目前投機(jī)頭寸處于過(guò)低水平?！备呤⒓瘓F(tuán)把今年年底前和明年第3季度前布倫特原油價(jià)格目標(biāo)分別保持在每桶49美元和每桶65美元。

9月早些時(shí)候，高盛集團(tuán)曾預(yù)測(cè)，布倫特原油價(jià)格在明年第3季度前將達(dá)到每桶65美元，不過(guò)明年年底可能會(huì)下跌至每桶58美元。

高盛集團(tuán)還預(yù)計(jì)，WTI原油價(jià)格到明年第3季度前將上漲至每桶55.88美元，高于其此前預(yù)測(cè)的每桶51.38美元。

高盛集團(tuán)分析師9月早些時(shí)候曾表示：“從明年春天開(kāi)始，疫苗將廣泛供應(yīng)的可能性越來(lái)越大，這將有助于支撐全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和石油需求，尤其是航空燃料的需求。”高盛集團(tuán)的分析師們至今仍持這種觀點(diǎn)。

全球最大的獨(dú)立石油交易商維多集團(tuán)(Vitol Group)也預(yù)計(jì)，今年剩余時(shí)間里全球原油庫(kù)存將繼續(xù)下降，這與其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手和許多分析師不同，后者認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)供過(guò)于求的情況將越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重。

全球最大的獨(dú)立原油貿(mào)易上維多集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官Russell Hardy近日在接受彭博社記者采訪時(shí)表示，全球原油庫(kù)存自今年夏初達(dá)到12億桶峰值以來(lái)迄今已減少了大約3億桶，預(yù)計(jì)9月至12月期間庫(kù)存將再減少2.5億 -3億桶。

與另一家大型大宗商品交易商托克集團(tuán)相比，維多集團(tuán)似乎更看好石油的短期前景。托克集團(tuán)預(yù)計(jì)，到今年年底，市場(chǎng)將呈現(xiàn)“以供應(yīng)為主”的局面，隨著需求復(fù)蘇的停滯，到今年年底，全球石油庫(kù)存將不斷增加。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Bullish Goldman Sachs Expects Brent To Hit $49 By Year-End

Goldman Sachs is bullish on oil, expecting the market to be in a deficit of around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) by the fourth quarter and Brent Crude prices to recover to $49 a barrel by the end of this year, from $43 early on Friday.

According to a new report from Goldman analysts, carried by Reuters, the recent floating storage of oil is more "transient inventory allocation dynamics" instead of a signal of a new glut.

"We estimate that the oil market remains in deficit with speculative positioning now at too low levels," Goldman Sachs said, keeping its Brent Crude target at $49 by end-2020 and $65 by the third quarter of 2021.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs forecast Brent Crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end next year lower, at $58 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs also expects WTI Crude to rally to $55.88 a barrel by the third quarter of 2021, up from $51.38 a barrel in earlier forecasts.

"There is a growing likelihood that vaccines will become widely available starting next spring, helping support global growth and oil demand, especially jet," the Goldman analysts said earlier this month, and are keeping that view.

Vitol Group, the world's largest independent oil trader, also expects global oil inventories to continue drawing down for the rest of the year, unlike its rivals and many analysts who see a growing glut on the market.

The world's stockpiles of oil have diminished by around 300 million barrels since peaking at 1.2 billion barrels early this summer, and are expected to decline by another 250 million-300 million barrels between September and December, Vitol's chief executive officer Russell Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview earlier this week.

Vitol looks more bullish on oil's short-term prospects than another major commodity trader, Trafigura, which expects a "supply-heavy" market through the end of the year, with inventories building by the end of 2020 as demand recovery stalls.