高盛預(yù)計布倫特原油價格年底前將觸及每桶49美元

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2020年9月18日休斯敦報道，一直看好石油行情的全球歷史最悠久和規(guī)模最大投資銀行之一的高盛集團預(yù)計今年第4季前石油市場將出現(xiàn)每天大約300萬桶原油的缺口，布蘭特原油價格將從9月18日早些時候的每桶43美元反彈至今年年底的每桶49美元。

根據(jù)路透社刊登的一份來自高盛集團分析師的最新報告，全球最近的浮式石油儲備更多地是“暫時的庫存配置動態(tài)”，而不是新的供過于求的信號。

高盛集團分析師們表示：“我們估計，石油市場仍處于赤字狀態(tài)，目前投機頭寸處于過低水平?！备呤⒓瘓F把今年年底前和明年第3季度前布倫特原油價格目標分別保持在每桶49美元和每桶65美元。

9月早些時候，高盛集團曾預(yù)測，布倫特原油價格在明年第3季度前將達到每桶65美元，不過明年年底可能會下跌至每桶58美元。

高盛集團還預(yù)計，WTI原油價格到明年第3季度前將上漲至每桶55.88美元，高于其此前預(yù)測的每桶51.38美元。

高盛集團分析師9月早些時候曾表示：“從明年春天開始，疫苗將廣泛供應(yīng)的可能性越來越大，這將有助于支撐全球經(jīng)濟增長和石油需求，尤其是航空燃料的需求?！备呤⒓瘓F的分析師們至今仍持這種觀點。

全球最大的獨立石油交易商維多集團(Vitol Group)也預(yù)計，今年剩余時間里全球原油庫存將繼續(xù)下降，這與其競爭對手和許多分析師不同，后者認為市場供過于求的情況將越來越嚴重。

全球最大的獨立原油貿(mào)易上維多集團首席執(zhí)行官Russell Hardy近日在接受彭博社記者采訪時表示，全球原油庫存自今年夏初達到12億桶峰值以來迄今已減少了大約3億桶，預(yù)計9月至12月期間庫存將再減少2.5億 -3億桶。

與另一家大型大宗商品交易商托克集團相比，維多集團似乎更看好石油的短期前景。托克集團預(yù)計，到今年年底，市場將呈現(xiàn)“以供應(yīng)為主”的局面，隨著需求復(fù)蘇的停滯，到今年年底，全球石油庫存將不斷增加。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Bullish Goldman Sachs Expects Brent To Hit $49 By Year-End

Goldman Sachs is bullish on oil, expecting the market to be in a deficit of around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) by the fourth quarter and Brent Crude prices to recover to $49 a barrel by the end of this year, from $43 early on Friday.

According to a new report from Goldman analysts, carried by Reuters, the recent floating storage of oil is more "transient inventory allocation dynamics" instead of a signal of a new glut.

"We estimate that the oil market remains in deficit with speculative positioning now at too low levels," Goldman Sachs said, keeping its Brent Crude target at $49 by end-2020 and $65 by the third quarter of 2021.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs forecast Brent Crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end next year lower, at $58 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs also expects WTI Crude to rally to $55.88 a barrel by the third quarter of 2021, up from $51.38 a barrel in earlier forecasts.

"There is a growing likelihood that vaccines will become widely available starting next spring, helping support global growth and oil demand, especially jet," the Goldman analysts said earlier this month, and are keeping that view.

Vitol Group, the world's largest independent oil trader, also expects global oil inventories to continue drawing down for the rest of the year, unlike its rivals and many analysts who see a growing glut on the market.

The world's stockpiles of oil have diminished by around 300 million barrels since peaking at 1.2 billion barrels early this summer, and are expected to decline by another 250 million-300 million barrels between September and December, Vitol's chief executive officer Russell Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview earlier this week.

Vitol looks more bullish on oil's short-term prospects than another major commodity trader, Trafigura, which expects a "supply-heavy" market through the end of the year, with inventories building by the end of 2020 as demand recovery stalls.