石油生產(chǎn)商們似乎準(zhǔn)備再次攤牌

據(jù)彭博社9月27日?qǐng)?bào)道，石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)可能會(huì)在今年年底前再次攤牌，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯等石油大國(guó)在如何應(yīng)對(duì)石油需求復(fù)蘇停滯不前的問(wèn)題上持有不同觀(guān)點(diǎn)。

歐洲各地對(duì)旅行和社交聚會(huì)的重新限制，加上國(guó)家對(duì)企業(yè)的支持計(jì)劃逐漸減少，對(duì)原油需求產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重影響。5月歐佩克+日產(chǎn)量創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地減少970萬(wàn)桶，而現(xiàn)在，石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)們開(kāi)始考慮放松對(duì)產(chǎn)出的限制。而他們意見(jiàn)的不一致，將帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重的市場(chǎng)危機(jī)。

過(guò)去兩個(gè)月里，國(guó)際能源署（IEA）將原油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)期下調(diào)了40萬(wàn)桶，而歐佩克則將日產(chǎn)量預(yù)期下調(diào)了50萬(wàn)桶，未來(lái)可能還會(huì)進(jìn)一步下調(diào)。IEA石油工業(yè)和市場(chǎng)部門(mén)主管尼爾?阿特金森(Neil Atkinson)周四表示，該機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)下一份月度報(bào)告的需求預(yù)測(cè)更有可能是下調(diào)而不是上調(diào)。

包括Emily Ashford和Paul Horsnell在內(nèi)的渣打銀行分析師上周在一份報(bào)告中稱(chēng)，石油需求面臨的最大阻力來(lái)自貿(mào)易的減少、經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟以及企業(yè)關(guān)閉和失業(yè)的連鎖反應(yīng)。

在石油需求本應(yīng)復(fù)蘇的時(shí)候，又開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)。歐洲病毒感染病例增多，引發(fā)了新一輪的在家工作的建議和對(duì)社會(huì)活動(dòng)的限制，這勢(shì)必與經(jīng)濟(jì)支持措施相沖突。美國(guó)的石油消費(fèi)也面臨著類(lèi)似的障礙，政府根據(jù)《冠狀病毒援助、救濟(jì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)安全法》提供的支持將于9月30日結(jié)束。亞洲也未能幸免，據(jù)渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，泰國(guó)是唯一一個(gè)石油需求接近“v”型復(fù)蘇的國(guó)家。

當(dāng)然，這不全是需求的問(wèn)題。來(lái)自歐佩克國(guó)家的額外供應(yīng)空間還取決于來(lái)自其他地區(qū)的石油供應(yīng)量，而在這方面的不確定性因素與需求的不確定性因素一樣多。

人們擔(dān)心，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油的產(chǎn)量將在未來(lái)幾周或幾個(gè)月里再次大幅下降。Emily Ashford警告稱(chēng)，目前美國(guó)的油井完井量非常低，可能很快就會(huì)出現(xiàn)月度產(chǎn)量大幅下滑。

美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)公布的更為強(qiáng)勁的月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量降幅比上周初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示的更大。如果美國(guó)產(chǎn)量再次下降，將為歐佩克+增加產(chǎn)量留出更多空間。

就連全球最大的石油交易商，像維托爾集團(tuán)(Vitol Group)、托克集團(tuán)(Trafigura Group)和摩科瑞能源集團(tuán)(Mercuria Energy Group)等，這些石油巨頭對(duì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的石油前景也沒(méi)有統(tǒng)一看法。摩科瑞首席執(zhí)行官馬爾科?杜蘭德表示，歐佩克正計(jì)劃從明年1月開(kāi)始開(kāi)采我們不需要的額外石油。托克集團(tuán)的高管們很悲觀(guān)，但維托爾集團(tuán)較其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手更為樂(lè)觀(guān)。

由于存在諸多的不確定性，歐佩克+集團(tuán)內(nèi)部出現(xiàn)的緊張局勢(shì)也就不足為奇了。對(duì)沙特阿拉伯來(lái)說(shuō)，最重要的是要防止油價(jià)下滑，該國(guó)能源部長(zhǎng)表示，歐佩克+將“先發(fā)制人”，阻止供應(yīng)超過(guò)需求，讓石油交易商“盡可能地緊張”。

俄羅斯總理亞歷山大?諾瓦克(Alexander Novak)則更為謹(jǐn)慎，希望避免反復(fù)修改一份設(shè)定到2022年4月底的生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)的協(xié)議。根據(jù)該協(xié)議，該集團(tuán)將從1月初開(kāi)始將其總產(chǎn)量再增加200萬(wàn)桶/天，而諾瓦克更愿意在做出改變決定之前盡可能地多觀(guān)察市場(chǎng)情況，保持謹(jǐn)慎。

值得注意的是，今年3月份，歐佩克內(nèi)部也曾出現(xiàn)過(guò)類(lèi)似的分歧，當(dāng)時(shí)俄羅斯希望維持現(xiàn)狀，而沙特阿拉伯尋求進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)，這引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)短暫的“混戰(zhàn)”，導(dǎo)致油價(jià)跌破每桶20美元。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Oil Heavyweights Look Ready for a Showdown

Oil producers could be set for another showdown before the end of the year, with heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia holding different views on how to approach the halting recovery in oil demand.

Renewed restrictions on travel and social gatherings across Europe, along with the tapering of state support packages for companies, are having a chilling effect on demand for crude, just as the OPEC+ group of oil producers, who cut production by a record 9.7 million barrels a day in May, begin to contemplate the next easing of limits on their output. We should all remember what happened last time they couldn’t agree on what to do.

The International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have both resumed cutting their forecasts for this year’s oil demand. In the past two months, the IEA has trimmed its forecast by 400,000 barrels a day, while OPEC has reduced its own by 500,000 barrels. And they may have further yet to fall. Neil Atkinson, the IEA’s Head of Oil Industry and Markets Division, said at a Bloomberg event on Thursday that the agency is “more likely to make a downgrade than an upgrade” to demand forecasts in its next monthly report.

The biggest headwind to oil demand comes from reduced trade, weakened economies and the knock-on effects of business closings and job losses, Standard Chartered analysts, including Emily Ashford and Paul Horsnell, said in a report last week.

At a time when oil demand was meant to be recovering, it now seems to be going into reverse again. A new round of work-from-home advice and restrictions on social activities, triggered by a rise in virus infections in Europe, are set to collide with a reduction in economic support measures. U.S. oil consumption faces similar obstacles, with government support under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act coming to an end on September 30. Even Asia isn’t immune, with Thailand the only country that’s close to seeing a V-shaped recovery in oil demand, according to Standard Chartered.

Of course, it’s not all about demand. The room available for additional supply from the OPEC+ countries also depends on how much oil is coming from elsewhere. And there is at least as much uncertainty on this front as there is with demand.

There are fears — or hopes, if you’re a rival oil producer — that output from U.S. shale deposits is set for another big drop in the coming weeks and months. Well completions in the U.S. are now so low that large monthly declines in production may be imminent, Emily Ashford warned last week.

More robust monthly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that this year’s drop in domestic crude production has been both steeper and deeper than their preliminary weekly data suggested. Another drop in U.S. production would leave more room for the OPEC+ group to raise its own output.

Even the world's biggest oil traders — including Vitol Group, Trafigura Group and Mercuria Energy Group — don't have a united view on the outlook for oil over the coming months. Mercuria co-founder and CEO Marco Durnand says “we do not need the extra oil” that the OPEC+ group is planning to pump from January. Trafigura executives are also downbeat. But Vitol has a starkly more bullish view than its rivals.

With so much uncertainty, it’s little surprise that tensions are emerging within the OPEC+ group.

Saudi Arabia wants, above all, to prevent oil prices from slipping, and its energy minister says the OPEC+ producer group will be “proactive and preemptive” to stop supply from running ahead of demand. He wants to make oil traders “as jumpy as possible.”

His Russian counterpart Alexander Novak is more cautious, wanting to avoid repeatedly revising a deal that sets out production targets to the end of April 2022. That agreement sees the group adding another 2 million barrels a day to their collective production from the beginning of January (see the chart above), and Novak prefers to wait as long as possible before making a decision to alter that.

We’ve all seen where a standoff between the two big beasts of the OPEC+ group can lead. There was a similar disagreement back in March, with Russia wanting to preserve the status quo and Saudi Arabia seeking deeper output cuts, that sparked a brief production free-for-all that helped push oil prices below $20 a barrel. Nobody wants a repeat of that.