沙特石油化工行業(yè)穩(wěn)步復(fù)蘇

據(jù)阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)10月1日消息，沙特著名的金融服務(wù)提供商Al Rajhi Capital的最新報(bào)告稱，沙特阿拉伯的聚合物價(jià)格在今年第二季度因疫情而大幅下跌后，目前正在穩(wěn)步回升。報(bào)告指出，一旦價(jià)格回升，沙特石化行業(yè)將比全球石化行業(yè)受益更多。一些關(guān)鍵的聚合物產(chǎn)品,如低密度聚乙烯（LDPE）的價(jià)格甚至高于2019年下半年時(shí)的價(jià)格,而一些產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格雖然仍低于去年同期的價(jià)格，但正在回升。

該報(bào)告稱:“至于2020年的收益，我們在上半年看到了相當(dāng)多的減損，因此今年全年的收益不會(huì)太好，但是我們預(yù)計(jì)，隨著價(jià)格的持續(xù)復(fù)蘇，2021年的收益表現(xiàn)將較2020年出現(xiàn)大幅改善。雖然供需動(dòng)態(tài)沒有實(shí)質(zhì)性改善，但我們考慮到新冠病毒疫苗的廣泛接種，從明年第一、二季度起市場會(huì)逐步改善。不過我們預(yù)測PE和石腦油以及PP和丙烷之間的價(jià)差仍將遠(yuǎn)低于長期歷史平均水平。”

報(bào)告指出：“鑒于聚合物產(chǎn)品相對防御性更強(qiáng)的特性，石化產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的上漲速度通常低于石油和原料價(jià)格上漲速度，這意味著未來石化產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格將逐步上漲。此外，由于石化行業(yè)現(xiàn)在隸屬于工業(yè)和能源部，我們認(rèn)為原料價(jià)格上漲的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低。當(dāng)油價(jià)回升時(shí)，由于乙烷固定成本，沙特石化行業(yè)比全球石化行業(yè)受益更多?！?/span>

張春曉 摘譯自 阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Saudi petchem sector on steady recovery: report

Polymer prices in Saudi Arabia have been recovering steadily after dropping significantly in the second quarter (Q2) of the year due to the pandemic, a report said, adding that when prices recover, Saudi petchems would benefit more than global petchems.

Some key polymer products such as LDPE have improved even more than the price levels seen in the second half (H2) of 2019 while a few are trading slightly lower but are on the recovery path, added the report by Al Rajhi Capital, a leading financial services provider in the kingdom.

“As for earnings in 2020, we have seen quite a few impairments in H1 and hence we expect a much-improved earnings performance year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2021 on continued recovery in prices,” the report said.

“While the supply-demand dynamics have not materially improved, we factor a gradual improvement on the assumption of Covid vaccination in the market from Q1/Q2 next year. Our 2021 forecasts for PE-naphtha spreads and PP-propane spreads remain much below long-term historical averages.

“Petchem prices generally increase at a relatively lesser pace compared to oil and feedstock prices, given the more relative defensive nature of polymer products, implying a gradual rise in prices in the coming periods.

“Also, with the petchem sector now coming under the Ministry of Industry and Energy, we believe there are lower risks for an increase in feedstock prices. When prices recover, Saudi petchems would benefit more than global petchems because of the operating leverage/ ethane fixed costs,” Al Rajhi Capital said in the report.