隨著供應(yīng)限制緩解 油價(jià)回落至40美元

據(jù)彭博社10月12日消息：石油價(jià)格連續(xù)第二天下滑，墨西哥灣在遭受颶風(fēng)“德?tīng)査币u擊后開(kāi)始恢復(fù)作業(yè)，挪威石油工人取消了罷工。

紐約期貨下跌0.9％，而上周五下跌了1.4％。周五風(fēng)暴登陸后，美國(guó)海灣運(yùn)營(yíng)商開(kāi)始重啟生產(chǎn)。德?tīng)査?dǎo)致約92%的石油產(chǎn)量和62%的天然氣產(chǎn)量關(guān)閉。

一位知情人士表示，Sharara油田最初日產(chǎn)4萬(wàn)桶原油，10天后將達(dá)到近30萬(wàn)桶的產(chǎn)能。

對(duì)歐佩克及其盟友而言，正在考慮是否在1月繼續(xù)實(shí)施進(jìn)一步削減產(chǎn)量的計(jì)劃。隨著許多國(guó)家冠狀病毒病例的增加，該組織將在11月30日至12月的下一次政策會(huì)議上面臨一個(gè)艱難的決定。即保持減產(chǎn)進(jìn)程或延遲產(chǎn)量的增加。

上周原油價(jià)格上漲，因交易商消化了颶風(fēng)“德?tīng)査睂?duì)產(chǎn)量的影響，且美國(guó)進(jìn)一步采取更多財(cái)政刺激措施。然而，在挪威石油工人達(dá)成一項(xiàng)協(xié)議后，石油價(jià)格上周五回落。該協(xié)議將恢復(fù)因糾紛而關(guān)閉的6個(gè)油田的生產(chǎn)，并防止事態(tài)升級(jí)到另外六個(gè)油田。同時(shí)避免了日產(chǎn)46萬(wàn)桶的挪威最大油田Johan Sverdrup的關(guān)閉。

伊拉克預(yù)計(jì)原油價(jià)格今年將維持在每桶41-42美元左右，2021年第一季將升至每桶45美元，官方報(bào)紙Al-Sabah援引該國(guó)石油部長(zhǎng)Ihsan Abdul Jabbar的采訪報(bào)道。伊拉克是歐佩克第二大產(chǎn)油國(guó)。這位部長(zhǎng)重申，該國(guó)將遵守歐佩克限制石油產(chǎn)量的協(xié)議。

根據(jù)貝克休斯公司的數(shù)據(jù)，上周美國(guó)原油鉆井平臺(tái)增加4個(gè)，達(dá)到193個(gè)，比過(guò)去三周增加了14個(gè)。盡管有警告稱需求可能要到2023年才能恢復(fù)到疫情前水平，但經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始回升。然而，堪薩斯城聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行對(duì)能源高管的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，不僅需求前景低迷，油田工作、工資和信貸渠道也不樂(lè)觀。

馮娟 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Oil Falls Back Toward $40 as Supply Constraints Begin to Ease

Oil slipped a second day as operations in the Gulf of Mexico began to resume following Hurricane Delta,and oil workers in Norway called off a strike.

Futures in New York fell as much as 0.9%, after declining 1.4% on Friday. U.S. Gulf operators are beginning to restart production after the storm made landfall on Friday. Delta’s approach had seen about 92% of oil production and 62% of gas output shuttered.

The Sharara field will initially pump 40,000 barrels of crude a day, before reaching its capacity of almost 300,000 barrels in 10 days, a person with knowledge of the situation said.

For OPEC and its allies as they mull whether to proceed with plans to further taper production curbs in January. With coronavirus cases accelerating in many countries, the cartel faces a difficult decision at its next policy meeting on Nov. 30-Dec. 1 to stay the course or delay the increase in production.

Crude rallied last week as traders factored in the production hit from Hurricane Delta and as the U.S. inched closer to more fiscal stimulus. However, prices retreated on Friday after Norway’s oil workers agreed a settlement that will restore production at six fields shut down by the dispute and prevent an escalation to another six. It also averted a shutdown of Norway’s largest oil field, the 460,000 barrel-a-day Johan Sverdrup facility.

Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer, expects crude prices to remain at around $41 to $42 a barrel this year before rising to $45 in the first quarter of 2021, the state-run Al-Sabah newspaper reported, citing an interview with Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar. The minister reiterated Iraq’s compliance with the OPEC+ pact to curb output.

Drilling rigs targeting crude oil in the U.S. rose by 4 to 193 last week, according to Baker Hughes, an increase of 14 in the last three weeks. Activity is starting to pick up despite a warning that demand might not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2023. A Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City survey of energy executives found a glum outlook not only for demand but for oilfield jobs, wages and access to credit.