北美石化生產(chǎn)商或通過削減CAPEX獲得成本優(yōu)勢

據(jù)ICIS-MRC網(wǎng)站3月9日莫斯科報道， 據(jù)烴加工公司表示，北美石化巨頭的頁巖氣優(yōu)勢為該地區(qū)的投資提供了動力，主要是在美國。

然而，油價暴跌縮小了這一優(yōu)勢，并可能影響盈利能力。全球領(lǐng)先的數(shù)據(jù)和分析公司GlobalData表示，北美石油化工巨頭努力有效地調(diào)整投資節(jié)奏，與市場趨勢保持一致，將提高其競爭力，并抓住進(jìn)一步的長期增長機會。

GlobalData的油氣分析師John Paul Somavarapu評論道，原油價格的突然下跌明顯影響了北美生產(chǎn)商的投資計劃，他們現(xiàn)在需要在保持長期收益的同時有效地加快投資步伐。GlobalData預(yù)計，企業(yè)將會降低運營成本和資本支出，并專注于較少的資本密集型投資，以便在市場復(fù)蘇之際站穩(wěn)腳跟。

這場疫情及其對原料成本的影響，已促使北美的石油化工巨頭宣布推遲項目。由于合同人員行動受到限制和旅行限制，在建項目的進(jìn)度也受到影響。北美的石化產(chǎn)能增加主要集中在美國，通過頁巖中豐富的乙烷供應(yīng)，利用低成本原料。美國在建的石化產(chǎn)能約為2720萬噸/年。緊隨其后的是加拿大，以320萬噸/年遠(yuǎn)居第二。

Somavarapu繼續(xù)道，全球石化行業(yè)正在經(jīng)歷范式轉(zhuǎn)變，原料選擇、需求模式、政府政策等將發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。從長遠(yuǎn)來看，北美，尤其是美國，在這些方面具有更大的優(yōu)勢。

由于汽車和建筑等終端市場需求疲軟，2020年北美對聚合物的需求受到了影響。然而，隨著全球經(jīng)濟逐步走向復(fù)蘇，工業(yè)和商業(yè)活動預(yù)計將恢復(fù)正常，對聚合物的需求將會加強，并可能在中長期內(nèi)達(dá)到新冠疫情前的水平。

Somavarapu補充道，生產(chǎn)商應(yīng)該保持靈活性，管理好近期的限制條件，以獲得中長期利益。作為全球最大的石化產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)國和供應(yīng)商之一，美國將期待抓住適當(dāng)?shù)脑鲩L機會。

郝芬 譯自 ICIS-MRC

原文如下：

North American petrochemical producers might see long-term cost advantage by reducing CAPEX

The shale gas advantage of North American petrochemical majors provides a boost for investments in the region, primarily in the U.S., said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

However, the oil price crash narrowed this advantage and is likely to affect profitability. North American petrochemical majors that strive to pace investments efficiently, in line with market trends, will boost their competitiveness and seize further opportunities for growth over the long-term, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

John Paul Somavarapu, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The sudden decline in crude oil prices have distinctly affected the planned investments by the North American producers and they now need to efficiently pace investments while preserving long-term gains. GlobalData expects companies to lower their operating expenses and capital expenditures and focus on less capital intense investments to position themselves well while the market recovers."

The pandemic and the resulting impact on feedstock costs have prompted petrochemical majors in North America to announce project delays. The progress of under-construction projects was also affected due to limitations in the movement of contract personnel and travel restrictions. Petrochemical capacity additions in North America are largely concentrated in the US, leveraging low-cost feedstock through the abundant supply of ethane from shale. The U.S has around 27.2 MM metric tpy of petrochemical capacity under construction. It is followed by Canada, which is a distant second with 3.2 MM metric tpy.

Somavarapu continues: “The global petrochemical industry is experiencing a paradigm shift, and feedstock options, demand patterns, government policies, and so on will play a pivotal role. North America, particularly the U.S, is at a greater advantage when considering these factors in the longer term."

The demand for polymers in North America in 2020 was affected due to weaker demand in end markets such as automotive and construction. However, as the global economy progresses towards a gradual recovery, and industrial and business activities are slated to return to normal, demand for polymers is set to strengthen and will likely reach pre-COVID levels in the medium- to long-term.

Somavarapu adds: “Producers should remain flexible and manage near-term constraints to reap benefits in the mid-long term. The US, being one of the largest producers and supplier of petrochemicals globally, will look forward to seizing the right opportunities for growth."