能源轉(zhuǎn)型導(dǎo)致油價(jià)上漲

據(jù)今日油價(jià)3月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)世界銀行的一份報(bào)告，能源轉(zhuǎn)型需要30億噸金屬和礦物。該報(bào)告還指出，到2050年，銅、鋰、鈷和石墨等材料的需求將增長(zhǎng)500%。而其中一些金屬(即銅)的市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)接近供小于求的狀態(tài)。

銅價(jià)接近2011年以來(lái)的紀(jì)錄高位，一位分析師至少預(yù)計(jì)，在今年年底前，需求將超過供應(yīng)。據(jù)Mining.com報(bào)道，斯通克斯公司的娜塔莉·斯科特-格雷(Natalie Scott-Gray)上個(gè)月表示，今年的需求將增長(zhǎng)5%，而供應(yīng)只會(huì)小幅增長(zhǎng)2.3%。更長(zhǎng)期的問題是，要實(shí)現(xiàn)更多的供應(yīng)還需要一段時(shí)間。

據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，托克首席執(zhí)行官杰里米?威爾(Jeremy Weir)在今年出版的《CERAWeek》表示:“我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，使用電動(dòng)汽車，風(fēng)力發(fā)電場(chǎng)和太陽(yáng)能需要的銅量將高達(dá)五倍。但又生產(chǎn)更多的銅。”

威爾補(bǔ)充道，銅礦的開發(fā)需要5到10年的時(shí)間，這意味著在可預(yù)見的未來(lái)，銅礦的供應(yīng)會(huì)更加緊張。這種情況與其他對(duì)能量轉(zhuǎn)變至關(guān)重要的礦物相似。目前，鈷價(jià)格也在上漲，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)預(yù)期需求上升將導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)收緊。特斯拉(Tesla)的埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)最近簽署了一項(xiàng)協(xié)議，讓該公司擔(dān)任新喀里多尼亞(New Caledonia) Goro礦的技術(shù)顧問，以確保鎳(另一種關(guān)鍵的電池金屬)的長(zhǎng)期供應(yīng)。

任何東西的需求增長(zhǎng)500%對(duì)投資者來(lái)說都是好消息，因此隨著銅和鎳等賤金屬價(jià)格上漲，金屬和礦產(chǎn)投資者的牛市即將到來(lái)。但隨著銅和鎳價(jià)格的上漲，與之配套的產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格也將上漲，尤其是電動(dòng)汽車，這是能源轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵。隨著汽車制造商和電池制造商不斷降低生產(chǎn)成本，電動(dòng)汽車被吹捧為越來(lái)越便宜的汽車。但如果任何電池組件的價(jià)格因金屬原料短缺而大幅上漲，這些生產(chǎn)成本削減將被抵消。

基礎(chǔ)金屬價(jià)格問題的根源在于:多年來(lái)，由于基礎(chǔ)金屬價(jià)格疲軟，該行業(yè)一直受到投資不足的困擾，而這些金屬價(jià)格疲軟是供應(yīng)充裕的結(jié)果，因?yàn)樾枨篁?qū)動(dòng)力總是相同的：制造業(yè)、建筑業(yè)、電信業(yè)、電力設(shè)施（銅），不銹鋼生產(chǎn)（鎳）和建筑業(yè)。

目前，全球鎳需求中只有4%來(lái)自電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)，而70%來(lái)自不銹鋼生產(chǎn)行業(yè)。但據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，電動(dòng)汽車的普及將導(dǎo)致電動(dòng)汽車的需求份額在明年從4%增加到10%，并在2030年進(jìn)一步增加到20%。這是一個(gè)非常急速的增長(zhǎng)，不可避免地會(huì)導(dǎo)致價(jià)格飆升，因?yàn)楫a(chǎn)量還沒有跟上。

銅的前景相對(duì)而言較樂觀。BFI Capital Group在概述能源轉(zhuǎn)型時(shí)引用的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全球市場(chǎng)情報(bào)的一份報(bào)告顯示，自1990年以來(lái)，全球共發(fā)現(xiàn)了224處大型銅礦。然而，這些發(fā)現(xiàn)中只有16個(gè)是在過去10年里發(fā)現(xiàn)的，其中只有一個(gè)是在2015年之后發(fā)現(xiàn)的。這意味著勘探環(huán)境的蕭條導(dǎo)致了未來(lái)銅供應(yīng)的下降，這意味著銅短缺即將出現(xiàn)。

說到勘探低迷和投資不足，石油市場(chǎng)也面臨供應(yīng)短缺，盡管石油這種大宗商品已經(jīng)從光明的前景中跌落。在過去10年里，兩次油價(jià)暴跌導(dǎo)致了勘探活動(dòng)的萎縮，而第二次危機(jī)還伴隨著一場(chǎng)大范圍的需求崩潰，進(jìn)一步降低了該行業(yè)對(duì)新勘探活動(dòng)的興趣。其結(jié)果是:根據(jù)法國(guó)的統(tǒng)計(jì)，在短短五年內(nèi)，世界每天將需要比現(xiàn)在多1000萬(wàn)桶的石油。

道達(dá)爾并不是唯一一家發(fā)出供應(yīng)短缺警告的公司。美國(guó)石油協(xié)會(huì)(American Petroleum Institute)最近表示，投資不足和自然枯竭的共同作用，最快將在明年導(dǎo)致石油短缺。當(dāng)然，API是一個(gè)行業(yè)組織，所以人們會(huì)期待它發(fā)出這樣的警告，但著眼長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)，短缺的原因也很容易看到。在2014年和2020年危機(jī)期間，所有石油行業(yè)都削減了對(duì)新勘探的投資。去年，由于需求的崩潰，許多公司甚至不得不減少現(xiàn)有的產(chǎn)量。

如今，由于能源轉(zhuǎn)型，石油前景比以往更加黯淡，許多公司，尤其是大型石油巨頭，正計(jì)劃繼續(xù)減產(chǎn)。與此同時(shí)，需求下降的速度并不像能源轉(zhuǎn)型倡導(dǎo)者希望的那樣快，尤其是在嚴(yán)重依賴化石燃料的發(fā)展中國(guó)家。作為全球石油需求最大的推動(dòng)者之一，印度已經(jīng)警告稱，歐佩克維持產(chǎn)量上限的決定將損害其經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

因此，在未來(lái)十年左右的時(shí)間里，我們所期待的很可能是更昂貴的電動(dòng)汽車、更昂貴的太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)力發(fā)電場(chǎng)，因?yàn)殂~在這些可再生能源系統(tǒng)中占有重要地位，諷刺的是，還有更昂貴的石油。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Energy Transition Leads To Higher Oil Prices, Metals Shortage

Three billion tons: this is how much metals and minerals the energy transition will require, according to a World Bank report. Demand for some of these, such as copper, lithium, cobalt, and graphite, is set to increase 500 percent by 2050, according to the same report. And the market for some of them—namely copper—is already near a deficit.

Copper prices are close to record highs last seen in 2011, and one analyst at least expects demand to exceed supply before this year’s end. Demand, Natalie Scott-Gray from StoneX said last month, as quoted by Mining.com, will rise by 5 percent this year while supply will only inch up by 2.3 percent. The longer-term problem is that additional supply takes time to come.

“We see the use of electric vehicles, wind farms and solar requires up to five times the amount of copper,” Jeremy Weir, chief executive of Trafigura, said at this year’s edition of CERAWeek, as quoted by Reuters. “You can’t turn on the switch and produce more copper.”

Weir added that copper mines take between five and ten years to develop, which means a tighter supply in the observable future. The situation is similar to other minerals that are essential for the energy transition. Cobalt prices are on the rise, too, at the moment, because of expectations that supply will tighten due to rising demand. And Tesla’s Elon Musk recently inked a deal to make the company a technical adviser at the Goro mine in New Caledonia to secure its long-term nickel supply—another key battery metal.

A 500-percent increase in demand for anything is certainly good news for investors in that thing, so bullish times are ahead for metals and minerals investors as the prices of base metals such as copper and nickel rise. But as copper and nickel prices rise, so will the price of the products made with them, notably EVs, on which much of the energy transition hinges. EVs are being touted as increasingly affordable as carmakers and battery makers continually reduce production costs. But if the price of any battery components jumps significantly due to a shortage, these production cost cuts will be wiped out.

The root of what could become a serious price problem with base metals lies in the past: for years, the industry has been plagued by underinvestment due to weak base metal prices, and these weak metal prices were the result of abundant supply because the demand drivers were always the same: manufacturing, construction, telecoms, and power utilities for copper, and stainless steel production and construction for nickel.

Right now, just 4 percent of the global demand for nickel comes from the electric vehicle industry, while 70 percent comes from the stainless steel production industry. But the forecast boom in EV adoption will lead to an increase in the share of demands from 4 to 10 percent by next year and further to 20 percent by 2030. This is a very sharp and very quick increase that will inevitably cause price spikes as production has yet to catch up.

The outlook is even more bullish for copper. Since 1990, there have been as many as 224 major new discoveries of copper deposits, according to a report by S&P Global Market Intelligence cited in a BFI Capital Group overview of the energy transition. Yet only 16 of these discoveries were made in the last ten years, with only one made since 2015. This means a depressed exploration environment that has led to a decline in future supply, which means a shortage is looming large on the horizon.

Speaking of depressed exploration and underinvestment, the oil market is also facing a shortage despite the commodity’s fall from grace into deep disgrace as the ultimate reason for the sorry state in which the Earth’s atmosphere appears to be. Two price crashes in the past ten years caused shrinking exploration, with the second crisis also accompanied by a pandemic that led to a historic demand collapse, further reducing the industry’s appetite for new exploration. The result: in just five years, the world will need 10 million bpd more oil than it has, according to French Total.

Total is not the only one warning of a shortage. The American Petroleum Institute recently said that the combination of underinvestment and natural depletion will result in a shortage as soon as next year. Of course, the API is an industry organization, so one would expect such a warning from it, but the makings of a shortage are easy to see from a distance, too. Everyone in oil cut their investments in new exploration during the 2014 and the 2020 crisis. Last year many even had to reduce existing production because of the collapse in demand.

Now, with the prospects for oil grimmer than before because of the energy transition, many, notably Big Oil majors, are planning to continue reducing their production. Demand, meanwhile, is not declining as fast as energy transition advocates might want it to decline, especially in developing nations that are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. India, one of the biggest drivers of global oil demand, has already warned that the OPEC+ decision to keep production caps in place will hurt its economic recovery.

So, what we have to look forward to in the coming decade or so may well be more expensive EVs and more expensive solar and wind farms, since copper features heavily in these renewable energy systems, and, ironically, more expensive oil.