EIA提高美國(guó)2021-22年天然氣和電力消耗預(yù)測(cè)

據(jù)天然氣新聞2021年3月10日華盛頓報(bào)道，盡管2月份的凍結(jié)限制了今年第一季度的產(chǎn)量，但更高的原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景改善的假設(shè)促使EIA在3月9日提高了其對(duì)美國(guó)2021-22年天然氣生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)的預(yù)測(cè)。

在3月份的短期能源展望（STEO）報(bào)告中，EIA還將其對(duì)今年美國(guó)電力消耗的預(yù)測(cè)提高了2.1%，理由是今年第一季度的氣溫比去年同期更低。

雖然EIA在報(bào)告中把其對(duì)美國(guó)第一季度可直接投入市場(chǎng)銷售的天然氣總產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)了7.1億立方英尺/天至979.7億立方英尺/天，但EIA把第二季度天然氣產(chǎn)量的估計(jì)數(shù)提高了6.3億立方英尺/天至985,8億立方英尺/天，以及把今明兩年的平均天然氣產(chǎn)量分別提高6.1億立方英尺/天至989.5億立方英尺和17億立方英尺/天至1006.3億立方英尺/天。

EIA把第一季度干氣產(chǎn)量下降主要?dú)w因于2月份的凍結(jié)天氣，但展望未來(lái)，EIA把今年的干氣總產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)至914億立方英尺/天，比此前的STEO估計(jì)高出9億立方英尺/天。

展望報(bào)告稱，“更高的預(yù)測(cè)在很大程度上反映了更高的預(yù)測(cè)原油價(jià)格，EIA預(yù)計(jì)這將有助于增加相關(guān)的天然氣產(chǎn)量?！?/span>

EIA估計(jì)，由于2月份寒冷的天氣覆蓋了美國(guó)大部分地區(qū)，推高了供暖和發(fā)電的需求，2月份美國(guó)的平均天然氣消費(fèi)量達(dá)到了1118億立方英尺/天的歷史最高水平。

李峻 編譯自 天然氣新聞

原文如下：

US EIA lifts forecasts for 2021-22 natural gas and power consumption

Higher forecasted crude oil prices and an assumptions of an improved US economic outlook prompted the Energy Information Administration March 9 to boost its forecasts for natural gas production and consumption, despite the February freeze that crimped production in the first quarter of 2021.

In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency also raised its forecast for US electricity consumption in 2021 by 2.1%, citing colder temperatures in the first quarter compared with the 2020 season.

While EIA lowered its Q1 total marketed gas production forecast by 710 MMcf/d to 97.97 Bcf/d, it raised the estimate for Q2, by 630 MMcf/d to 98.58 Bcf/d, as well its forecasts for the 2021 and 2022 averages, up 610 MMcf/d to 98.95 Bcf/d and 1.7 Bcf/d to 100.63 Bcf/d, respectively.

The agency attributed Q1 dry gas production declines mostly to February freeze-offs, but looking ahead raised its forecast for overall dry gas production to 91.4 Bcf/d in 2021, or 900 MMcf/d more than its previous STEO estimate.

"The higher forecast largely reflects higher forecast crude oil prices, which EIA expects will contribute to more associated natural gas production," the outlook said.

The agency estimated that gas consumption in February was the highest on record, at 111.8 Bcf/d, as cold weather blanketed much of the US, driving up demand for heating and power generation.