油價(jià)可能漲到每桶100美元嗎？

據(jù)今日油價(jià)3月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)在2月份的《短期能源展望》(Short Term Energy Outlook, STEO)中預(yù)測(cè)，2月的全球石油消費(fèi)量為9670萬(wàn)桶/天。然而，石油供應(yīng)要低得多，只有9360萬(wàn)桶/天，其中310萬(wàn)桶/天的供應(yīng)來(lái)自原油和成品油庫(kù)存。以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量，300萬(wàn)桶/天的持續(xù)庫(kù)存消耗是很大的，在這種情況下，預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)將上漲。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)需求將繼續(xù)以良好的速度復(fù)蘇，直至2021年年中。7月份全球石油消費(fèi)預(yù)計(jì)為9820萬(wàn)桶/天(但仍比“正?！彼降图s400萬(wàn)桶/天)。這一增長(zhǎng)的需求由兩個(gè)來(lái)源助推，一是巴西，二是歐佩克。市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)接受巴西原油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的事實(shí)，可接受的時(shí)間也會(huì)推遲一兩個(gè)月，關(guān)鍵的問(wèn)題是歐佩克的產(chǎn)量供應(yīng)決定。

EIA使用的是需求驅(qū)動(dòng)模型，這意味著歐佩克將被動(dòng)地增加產(chǎn)量以滿足需求，從而保持油價(jià)在較低的水平。但歐佩克為什么要這么做呢?如果歐佩克僅僅維持目前的產(chǎn)量水平，到年中，全球石油供應(yīng)將短缺350萬(wàn)桶/天。350萬(wàn)桶/天的缺口(占全球消費(fèi)的3.6%)是很大的，將迅速消耗剩余的過(guò)剩庫(kù)存，只剩下油價(jià)在供需之間進(jìn)行調(diào)停，而此時(shí)，隨著疫情的結(jié)束，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正顯示出強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭。換句話說(shuō)，在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月，消費(fèi)者將準(zhǔn)備好爭(zhēng)奪現(xiàn)有的石油，這應(yīng)該會(huì)推動(dòng)油價(jià)大幅上漲。

這就是做出“油價(jià)將達(dá)到每桶100美元”判斷的原因。

這里有一些重要的注意事項(xiàng)。在許多情況下，運(yùn)營(yíng)商必須在知道石油確切價(jià)格之前就承諾生產(chǎn)原油。在這種情況下，歐佩克可以自行決定讓油價(jià)上漲并增加產(chǎn)量。這使歐佩克對(duì)油價(jià)有了很大的控制和靈活性。當(dāng)然，油價(jià)上漲更好，但如果歐佩克認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)過(guò)熱，可以在相當(dāng)短的時(shí)間內(nèi)增加更多的石油，這將鼓勵(lì)歐佩克測(cè)試更高的價(jià)格水平。

很難知道什么時(shí)候供需將達(dá)到平衡。不過(guò)，現(xiàn)在是歐佩克在中短期內(nèi)真正賺錢的最佳機(jī)會(huì)。如果讓機(jī)會(huì)溜走，他們就是傻瓜。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

How Oil Could Go To $100 Per Barrel

In its February Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA forecasts this month's world oil consumption at 96.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). The oil supply, however, is much lower, only 93.6 mbpd, with the difference of 3.1 mbpd of necessity being drawn from crude oil and refined product inventories. By historical standards, a sustained draw of 3 mbpd is large, and we would expect prices to be rising under such circumstances.

The EIA sees demand continuing to recover at a good pace to mid-year, with July world oil consumption forecast at 98.2 mbpd (but still about 4 mbpd below 'normal'). This incremental demand is being materially supplied by two sources, Brazil and OPEC. We might accept Brazil's crude oil production growth as given, allowing that the timing might be off by a month or two. The pivotal question is instead OPEC's intentions.

The EIA uses a volume (or demand) driven model, implying that OPEC will passively increase production to meet demand, and thereby keep oil prices low. But why would OPEC do this? If OPEC simply maintained current production levels, the world would be 3.5 mbpd short of supply by mid-year. A shortfall of 3.5 mbpd -- 3.6% of global consumption -- is a lot. It would rapidly drain remaining excess inventories, leaving only oil prices to mediate between supply and demand just as the world economy is showing both strength and momentum as the pandemic ends. In other words, in the coming months consumers will be prepared to compete for the available barrels of oil, and that should push oil prices up sharply.

That's the '$100 / barrel' thesis.

A few important notes and caveats. In many cases, operators must commit to producing barrels before they know what the price will be. In this case, OPEC can let prices rise and add barrels at its discretion. This provides OPEC a great deal of control and flexibility over oil prices. Certainly, higher oil prices are better, but more barrels can be added on fairly short notice if OPEC believes the market is overheating. This should encourage OPEC to test ever higher price levels.

It is hard to know where the balance comes out. Nevertheless, now is OPEC's best opportunity to make real money in the short to medium term. They would be fools to let the opportunity slip by.