并購浪潮改善英國北海油氣行業(yè)發(fā)展前景

據(jù)天然氣新聞2021年3月12日倫敦報道，在未來投資不確定和環(huán)境壓力的背景下，新的運營商嶄露頭角，一波并購浪潮燃起英國北海石油和天然氣行業(yè)逐步復(fù)蘇的希望。

盡管包括挪威在內(nèi)的北海地區(qū)的石油產(chǎn)量占全球石油產(chǎn)量的3%，且能滿足歐洲天然氣需求的很大一部分，但北海油氣工業(yè)生產(chǎn)的布倫特和福爾蒂斯等原油等級的產(chǎn)量一直面臨下降的警告。

英國去年的石油日產(chǎn)量下降了7%，日產(chǎn)量僅略高于100萬桶。據(jù)預(yù)測，從明年到2027年，英國的石油日產(chǎn)量將急劇下降，屆時將降至60.7萬桶。

去年，英國油氣行業(yè)面臨多重挑戰(zhàn)，包括受新冠肺炎疫情影響的海上油氣活動限制、資本預(yù)算削減以及對其二氧化碳排放量的越來越嚴格的審查。

然而，英國最近幾周也出現(xiàn)了一系列并購消息，表明投資者愿意投資更多項目，盡管復(fù)蘇速度滯后于挪威，但英國的稅收優(yōu)惠刺激了一系列開發(fā)承諾，其中多數(shù)規(guī)模較小，但目標至少為2.75億桶油當量。

挪威國家銀行(DNB)高級副總裁馬克 芒羅3月在一次英國行業(yè)活動上表示，如果英國企業(yè)將戰(zhàn)略與能源轉(zhuǎn)型掛鉤，那么英國油氣行業(yè)將仍有資金可用。

上周，英國私營Neo能源公司收購了同為獨立企業(yè)的Zennor石油公司。不到一個月前，Neo能源公司宣布收購?？松梨诠驹谟拇蟛糠稚嫌螛I(yè)務(wù)；7個月前，Neo能源公司收購了一批道達爾公司的資產(chǎn)。在Zennor石油公司的Finlaggan項目和其他項目的支持下，Neo能源公司預(yù)計在2022-2026年期間，其油氣日產(chǎn)量將增加近兩倍，達到9萬至10萬桶油當量的穩(wěn)產(chǎn)水平。

而3月份，英國油氣行業(yè)迄今最大的一筆并購交易應(yīng)該會完成：私人股本支持的Chrysaor公司與Premier石油公司合并，成立Harbour能源公司，后者將在倫敦證交所上市，并可能成為英國最大的油氣生產(chǎn)商。

英國凱恩能源公司3月9日宣布，將向新成立公司W(wǎng)aldorf 生產(chǎn)公司出售其在Premier石油公司的 Catcher和EnQuest's Kraken油田持有的少數(shù)股權(quán)，理由是這些油田的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計會下降。

盡管如此，這些交易被描繪成將資產(chǎn)掌握在致力于最大化英國北海地區(qū)潛力的公司手中。

早在去年11月，北海承包商Subsea 7首席執(zhí)行官約翰?埃文斯向投資者抱怨，很多“金融工程”在沒有大量實際投資的情況下進行，而像Subsea 7這樣的公司不得不處理英格蘭和蘇格蘭之間應(yīng)對新冠肺炎疫情大流行制度的差異，或者用他的話說，是國家的“子元素”。然而，到2月底前，他把英國形容為一個“亮點”，經(jīng)濟活動開始好轉(zhuǎn)。

毫無疑問，英國油氣行業(yè)面臨著各種挑戰(zhàn)，今年夏天，一系列維修停運將導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量下降，監(jiān)管壓力也將加大。

在3月3日舉行的行業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會上，行業(yè)集團英國石油和天然氣協(xié)會首席執(zhí)行官Deirdre Michie表示，英國目前的海上油氣活動仍比大流行前水平低四分之一，并強調(diào)了等待批準投資的不確定性；這些項目包括位于設(shè)得蘭群島西部的大型項目，如Cambo和Rosebank石油開發(fā)項目，以及BP 克萊爾油田的潛在擴建項目。

政府的支持

在同一場活動中，英國政府商業(yè)、能源和清潔增長大臣Anne-Marie Trevelyan指出，英國油氣行業(yè)面臨越來越多的挑戰(zhàn)，特別是在控制其運營排放方面，據(jù)信其排放量占英國總排放量的3.5%。

據(jù)監(jiān)管機構(gòu)英國石油和天然氣管理局稱，英國在一個領(lǐng)域取得了進展，即遏制多余天然氣燃燒的努力；去年，盡管沒有燃燒直接排放到大氣中的天然氣量有所增加，但海上燃燒的天然氣量下降了22%。各種各樣的計劃也在制定中，將低碳電力引入海上設(shè)施，以幫助遏制排放。

隨著英國油氣行業(yè)開始應(yīng)對排放挑戰(zhàn)，金融服務(wù)公司安永事務(wù)所合伙人喬恩?克拉克表達了樂觀的看法。他參與了英國近期的并購交易，“新的或正在成長的組織向英國大陸架投入大量資金，對英國油氣行業(yè)的未來來說是一個非常積極的信號?！?/span>

對于英國政府的舉措，Trevelyan也普遍表示支持。她表示，“我們希望英國大陸架仍是一個有吸引力的投資目的地，并與英國油氣行業(yè)合作，重新利用我們的能源體系?！?/span>

她說，“成熟盆地和產(chǎn)量下降以及老化資產(chǎn)確實構(gòu)成了進一步的挑戰(zhàn)?！薄暗绻f英國油氣行業(yè)有什么特點的話，那就是它所展現(xiàn)出的韌性，以及它在供應(yīng)鏈創(chuàng)新方面的天賦。”

李峻 編譯自 天然氣新聞

原文如下：

M&A wave improves prospects for UK North Sea

A wave of mergers and acquisitions is raising hopes for a gradual recovery in the UK's North Sea oil and gas sector, with new operators coming to prominence at a time of uncertainty over future investment, and environmental pressures.

The North Sea industry, which produces crude grades such as Brent and Forties that contribute to the Dated Brent benchmark, has long faced warnings of decline, even as the region, including Norway, accounts for 3% of global oil output and meets a significant share of Europe's gas needs.

UK oil output fell 7% last year to just over 1 million b/d, and Analytics forecasts a steepening decline from next year to 2027, when it expects output to fall to 607,000 b/d.

The sector has faced multiple challenges in the last year including restrictions on offshore activity due to the pandemic, cuts to capital budgets and rising scrutiny of its CO2 footprint.

However, there has also been a spate of M&A announcements in recent weeks, suggesting a willingness to invest in further projects, albeit the recovery lags Norway, where tax breaks have spurred a flurry of development commitments, most of them small, but targeting at least 275 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Mark Munro, senior vice president of Norwegian bank DNB, told an event for the UK industry this month there was still capital available for the sector provided companies link their strategies to the energy transition.

The last week has seen privately owned Neo Energy buy fellow independent Zennor Petroleum less than a month after Neo announced the purchase of most of ExxonMobil's UK upstream business, and seven months after it bought a clutch of Total assets. Neo expects to almost triple its oil and gas output to stable rates of 90,000-100,000 boe/d in 2022-2026 on the back of Zennor's Finlaggan project and other prospects.

And this month should see the completion of the sector's biggest current M&A deal: private equity-backed Chrysaor's merger with Premier Oil to form Harbour Energy, which will be listed on the London Stock Exchange and could become the UK's largest oil and gas producer.

A somewhat more negative tone was struck by Cairn Energy's announcement March 9 that it is selling its minority stakes in Premier's Catcher and EnQuest's Kraken fields to newcomer Waldorf Production, citing the fields' expected decline.

Nonetheless, such deals are portrayed as putting assets in the hands of companies committed to maximizing the region's potential.

Back in November, John Evans, CEO of North Sea contractor Subsea 7, was complaining to investors about a lot of "financial engineering" going on without much actual investment, while companies like his had to manage differences between pandemic regimes in England and Scotland, or "sub-elements" of countries, as he put it. By last month, however, he was describing the UK as a "bright spot," with activity picking up.

There is no doubt the sector faces challenges, with a swath of maintenance shutdowns set to reduce production this summer, and intensifying regulatory pressure.

At an industry webinar March 3, Deirdre Michie, CEO of industry group Oil & Gas UK, said offshore activity was still a quarter below pre-pandemic levels and highlighted uncertainty over investments awaiting approval; these include sizeable West of Shetland projects such as the Cambo and Rosebank oil developments and a potential expansion at BP's Clair field.

Government support

At the same event, the government's minister for business, energy and clean growth, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, noted a "growing list of challenges" for the sector, particularly in curbing its operational emissions, thought to account for 3.5% of total UK emissions.

Progress is being made in one area, the effort to curb flaring of unwanted gas, according to regulator the Oil & Gas Authority; the volume of gas flared offshore dropped by 22% last year, although "venting" of gas directly into the atmosphere without combustion increased somewhat. Various schemes are also being developed to bring low-carbon electricity to offshore installations to help curb emissions.

With the industry starting to address the emissions challenge, Jon Clark, a partner at financial services firm Ernst & Young who has worked on recent M&A deals, struck an upbeat note. "New or growing organizations committing material sums of capital to the UK continental shelf is a very positive sign for the sector's future," he said.

For the government, Trevelyan was also broadly supportive. "We want the UK continental shelf to remain an attractive investment destination and to work with the sector in repurposing our energy system," she said.

"The mature basin and decline of production combined with aging assets does present a further challenge," she said. "But if there is one thing that characterizes the oil and gas industry, it is the resilience you have shown and the talent for innovation of your supply chain."