航空公司面臨燃油價(jià)格上漲帶來(lái)的新挑戰(zhàn)

據(jù)彭博社3月17日消息：正如航空公司開(kāi)始擺脫有史以來(lái)的最大跌幅一樣，該行業(yè)也面臨著新的難題：燃油價(jià)格的迅速上漲。

跟蹤航空趨勢(shì)的OAG高級(jí)分析師John Grant表示，不斷上漲的燃油成本將使航空公司陷入兩難境地。去年冠狀病毒來(lái)襲時(shí)，需求突然消失，證明對(duì)沖成本高昂。

"考慮到燃油費(fèi)用是航空公司最大、最不可預(yù)測(cè)的成本之一，這一現(xiàn)狀確實(shí)令人焦慮擔(dān)憂。"

據(jù)OAG稱，目前全球產(chǎn)能仍略高于疫情前水平的一半，美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)是增長(zhǎng)的亮點(diǎn)。Sobie Aviation顧問(wèn)Brendan Sobie表示，航空公司將不得不重新評(píng)估運(yùn)力計(jì)劃，因?yàn)槿加蛢r(jià)格上漲需要更充分的飛行才能達(dá)到收支平衡。

據(jù)國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)稱，預(yù)計(jì)航空燃料和煤油的需求要到2024年才能恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平。

盡管如此，由于疫苗的推出和歐佩克+成員國(guó)減產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)緊張，需求前景有所改善，作為航空燃油定價(jià)基礎(chǔ)的油價(jià)已從去年封鎖高峰時(shí)的每桶20美元以下飆升至近70美元。原油價(jià)格今年上漲了近34%。

馮娟 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Airlines face new challenge with fuel prices on upswing

Just as airlines start to emerge from their biggest slump on record, the industry is facing a new headache: a rapid rise in fuel prices.

Escalating fuel costs will create a dilemma for carriers who unwound hedges that proved costly when demand suddenly disappeared when the coronavirus hit last year, said John Grant, senior analyst at OAG, which tracks aviation trends.

“It’s more than a concern,” given that the fuel bill is the one of airlines’ biggest and most unpredictable costs, he said in a webinar.

Global capacity remains just above half of pre-pandemic levels, with the domestic U.S. market a bright spot for growth, according to OAG. Carriers are going to have to re-evaluate capacity plans because rising fuel prices require fuller flights to break even, said Brendan Sobie, a consultant at Sobie Aviation.

Demand for jet fuel and kerosene is expected to take until 2024 to recover to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Energy Agency.

Still, oil prices -- which underlie jet-fuel pricing -- have skyrocketed from below US$20 a barrel at the height of lockdown last year to near US$70 as the demand outlook improves with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and output cuts from OPEC+ members tighten supply. Crude is up almost 34 percent this year.