未來幾十年化石燃料將繼續(xù)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)3月21日消息稱，石器時(shí)代并沒有因?yàn)槿鄙偈^而結(jié)束，石油時(shí)代將在“世界石油耗盡”之前結(jié)束。這句話通常被認(rèn)為是沙特石油部長(zhǎng)sheikh Yamani說的，它強(qiáng)調(diào)了石油行業(yè)一個(gè)至關(guān)重要卻經(jīng)常被誤解的事實(shí)。石油供應(yīng)不會(huì)枯竭，但石油最終會(huì)被更便宜、更清潔、更高效的能源所取代。這種誤解導(dǎo)致許多分析師預(yù)測(cè)石油行業(yè)將會(huì)滅亡。巴《巴黎協(xié)定》設(shè)定了控制氣候變化和降低地球溫度的全球目標(biāo)。這一目標(biāo)不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)，除非世界從化石燃料轉(zhuǎn)向清潔和可再生能源。這些雄心勃勃的目標(biāo)肯定會(huì)加速全球能源從化石燃料轉(zhuǎn)型，但這一轉(zhuǎn)型需要多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間尚不清楚。

中國(guó)已承諾到2060年實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和，并于近期啟動(dòng)了全球最大的碳交易市場(chǎng)。與此同時(shí)，日本和歐盟都承諾到2050年消除碳排放，歐盟的目標(biāo)是到2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和。拜登政府承諾撥出2萬億美元用于脫碳，并計(jì)劃重新加入《巴黎協(xié)定》。所有這些承諾在理論上的確令人印象深刻，但在現(xiàn)實(shí)中，它們將遇到兩個(gè)主要問題。第一個(gè)是以一種難以置信的不現(xiàn)實(shí)的速度實(shí)現(xiàn)可再生能源的使用，第二個(gè)是確保我們要過渡到的系統(tǒng)能夠完成其需要做的事情。值得注意的是，如果我們要將碳排放減少到《巴黎氣候協(xié)議》規(guī)定的水平，我們目前并不具備許多所需的技術(shù)。

在大多數(shù)能源過渡計(jì)劃中，碳捕集與封存（CCS）系統(tǒng)是有助于減少二氧化碳排放的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)之一，它可以從環(huán)境中捕獲碳，并將其存儲(chǔ)在海底設(shè)施中。然而，截至2020年，全球只有26個(gè)設(shè)施在運(yùn)作，可捕集4000萬噸二氧化碳。與此同時(shí)，2019年世界排放了超過350億噸的碳。要想縮小這一差距，需要在技術(shù)上取得重大突破，這可能就是為什么埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)愿意為他的新競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手提供1億美元的最佳碳捕捉技術(shù)。

轉(zhuǎn)型的另一個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)是石油和天然氣行業(yè)的龐大規(guī)模和影響力。石油和天然氣行業(yè)擁有龐大的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，以及由管道、油井和其他設(shè)施組成的復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)。根據(jù)捷克-加拿大科學(xué)家和政策分析師Vaclav Smil的說法，如果美國(guó)希望用可再生能源滿足美國(guó)的能源消費(fèi)，就必須把25%至50%的國(guó)土用于太陽能、風(fēng)能和生物燃料。如此巨大的變化將遇到石油和天然氣行業(yè)的巨大阻力，并且將花費(fèi)大量時(shí)間和投資。

能源轉(zhuǎn)型的下一個(gè)大問題是可再生能源的固有局限性。麻省理工學(xué)院的一項(xiàng)研究預(yù)測(cè)，太陽能將需要3.3萬平方公里的土地來滿足美國(guó)的電力需求。同樣，如果英國(guó)要利用風(fēng)能滿足其所有能源需求，就需要用英國(guó)一半的陸地來建造風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)。

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Fossil Fuels Will Continue To Dominate For Decades To Come

The stone age didn’t end due to a lack of stones, and the oil age will end long before the “world runs out of oil”. This quote, often attributed to Saudi Oil Minister Shiekh Yamani, highlights a vital and frequently misunderstood fact about the oil industry. Oil supplies are not going to run out, but oil will eventually be replaced by cheaper, cleaner, and more efficient energy sources. This misunderstanding has led many analysts to predict the death of the oil industry. The Paris Agreement has set a global goal to control climate change and reduce the temperature of the earth. That goal will not be achievable until the world shifts from fossil fuels to clean and renewable energy. These ambitious targets are sure to accelerate the global energy transition away from fossil fuels, but it remains unclear just how long that transition will take.

China has vowed to be carbon neutral by 2060 and recently launched the world’s largest carbon trading market. Meanwhile, both Japan and the European Union have promised to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 and the European Union aims to be carbon neutral by 2050. The Biden administration has promised to set aside $2 trillion for decarbonization and plans to rejoin the Paris Agreement. All of these commitments are certainly impressive in theory, but in reality, they are going to run into two major problems. The first is achieving the adoption of renewable energy at an incredibly unrealistic speed, the second is ensuring that the system that we are transitioning to does what it needs to do. It is important to note that we do not currently have many of the technologies that we will need if we are to reduce carbon emissions by the levels set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.

In most energy transition plans, Carbon, Capture, and Storage (CCS) systems are one of the key technologies that will help curb CO2 emissions by capturing carbon from the environment and storing it in subsea facilities. However, as of 2020, only 26 facilities were working globally, capturing 40 million tons of carbon dioxide. Meanwhile, in 2019 the world emitted more than 35 billion tons of carbon. Closing that gap requires serious technological breakthroughs, which may be why Elon Musk is offering $100 million to the best carbon capture technology in his new competition.

Another challenge to this transition is the sheer size and influence of the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas industry has a gargantuan infrastructure, and an elaborate network of pipelines, wells, and other facilities. According to Czech-Canadian scientist and policy analyst Vaclav Smil, the U.S. would have to dedicate 25–50 percent of its landmass to solar, wind, and biofuels if it hopes to satiate U.S. energy consumption with renewables. Such a drastic change will come up against plenty of resistance from the oil and gas industry and will take significant time and investment.

The next big problem with the energy transition is the inherent limitations of renewable energy sources. An MIT study predicts that 33,000 square kilometers of land would be required in order to power U.S. electricity demand with solar energy. Similarly, it would require using half of the UK landmass for wind turbines if the country were to use wind for all its energy needs.